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I'm not sure why you don't buy it on this basis. Your "obvious" response was evidently not that uncommon, as the first graph of adult responses shows (many mor

by jsankey 17y ago

I'm not sure why you don't buy it on this basis. Your "obvious" response was evidently not that uncommon, as the first graph of adult responses shows (many more adults suggest bucket than basket or vase). The important part is the difference between this and the following graph, which shows that when adults know the ball is in the bucket (as opposed to any of the other containers) they are even more likely to answer bucket.

hughprime 17y ago
I'm skeptical about this. The answer should be very obvious to any adult who has actually understood the question, so I'm thinking that any adult who doesn't answer "bucket" has just misunderstood the question (it's a little confusing to keep track of all these people and receptacles) and not that they lack a mental model of "other people's knowledge" the way that a three-year-old probably does.
- gojomo 17y ago
  "The answer should be very obvious"? Huh? There's no obvious one right answer, though 'box' and 'bucket' are most defensible -- based on expectation of same container or same place. More adults answered 'box' and in reality I think what 'Sally' would do would be very dependent on the exact placement and the path she takes into the room, and her order of perceiving the containers. If she takes in the whole scene before deciding where to go/look, the box; if she moves to the expected place and then is surprised by the difference, the bucket. (This question in its first form may really be testing whether the answerer is primarily visual or kinesthetic in their modelling of other people.) But still, the essential point is the difference when people are told where the ball really is. 'Sally' still does not know, so a rigorously logical answer would be the same as the first case. (The additional information is irrelevant for predicting Sally's actions.) And yet, the additional information does cause a statistically significant difference in chosen answers. That means the answerer's mind, or model of mind, is leaky. Once 'primed' with info, they can't pretend they don't know it, or model the mind of someone who doesn't know it. Note in this case 'leaky' doesn't mean 'worse' (even though it is more like the younger child's answers). A straightforward policy of hewing to what is true regardless of what others know or how the knowledge was acquired is fine; it just isn't ideal for some social roles -- like lawyer or poker player -- that require a detailed understanding of others' limited information. So the real pro predictor, when asked "Where does Sally look first?", might ask in response: "How old is Sally? Does she more often pretend-play to be an athlete or a detective? What are her parents' careers?"
  - hughprime 17y ago
    Hmm, drat, you're right, I didn't read the scenario carefully. My apologies for the confusion.

by jsankey 17y ago

hughprime 17y ago

I'm skeptical about this. The answer should be very obvious to any adult who has actually understood the question, so I'm thinking that any adult who doesn't answer "bucket" has just misunderstood the question (it's a little confusing to keep track of all these people and receptacles) and not that they lack a mental model of "other people's knowledge" the way that a three-year-old probably does.

gojomo 17y ago
"The answer should be very obvious"? Huh? There's no obvious one right answer, though 'box' and 'bucket' are most defensible -- based on expectation of same container or same place. More adults answered 'box' and in reality I think what 'Sally' would do would be very dependent on the exact placement and the path she takes into the room, and her order of perceiving the containers. If she takes in the whole scene before deciding where to go/look, the box; if she moves to the expected place and then is surprised by the difference, the bucket. (This question in its first form may really be testing whether the answerer is primarily visual or kinesthetic in their modelling of other people.) But still, the essential point is the difference when people are told where the ball really is. 'Sally' still does not know, so a rigorously logical answer would be the same as the first case. (The additional information is irrelevant for predicting Sally's actions.) And yet, the additional information does cause a statistically significant difference in chosen answers. That means the answerer's mind, or model of mind, is leaky. Once 'primed' with info, they can't pretend they don't know it, or model the mind of someone who doesn't know it. Note in this case 'leaky' doesn't mean 'worse' (even though it is more like the younger child's answers). A straightforward policy of hewing to what is true regardless of what others know or how the knowledge was acquired is fine; it just isn't ideal for some social roles -- like lawyer or poker player -- that require a detailed understanding of others' limited information. So the real pro predictor, when asked "Where does Sally look first?", might ask in response: "How old is Sally? Does she more often pretend-play to be an athlete or a detective? What are her parents' careers?"
- hughprime 17y ago
  Hmm, drat, you're right, I didn't read the scenario carefully. My apologies for the confusion.