Nahhh. This would be my prediction if the WC was a long series of randomly defined games. The specific games calendar has effects, though. My own model goes f

Nahhh. This would be my prediction if the WC was a long series of randomly defined games. The specific games calendar has effects, though. My own model goes from the Elo ratings at http://eloratings.net http://eloratings.net (with Elo, a pair of scores gives you an expected result) and simulates 10^7 World Cups, updating scores for each simulation as it goes and so on. There aren't any clear favorites, although of course there's an elite group (IIRC 5 or 6 teams together have 25% of likelihood of being champions) and Germany is slightly ahead. But in the modal scenario Brazil is eliminated by Spain in the eighth-finals.