To some extent, we always have to extrapolate from the short-term into the long term, but the point is to remember that we are doing so, and to reduce our confi

To some extent, we always have to extrapolate from the short-term into the long term, but the point is to remember that we are doing so, and to reduce our confidence accordingly. Still, I love XKCD's take on it: https://xkcd.com/605/ https://xkcd.com/605/