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The thesis the talk pivots around is this one, in my reading: "Investor storytime only works if you can argue that advertising in the future is going to be eff

The thesis the talk pivots around is this one, in my reading: "Investor storytime only works if you can argue that advertising in the future is going to be effective and lucrative in ways it just isn't today. If the investors stop believing this, the money will dry up."

krakensden 12y ago
It's worth noting that web advertising is still small potatoes compared to more traditional channels- and the traditional channels make it astonishingly difficult to measure effectiveness. There's an awful lot of money in selling Coca-Cola, and Pinboard & Facebook haven't scratched the surface.
- Zigurd 12y ago
  It is a minority of the total, but it is getting up to about 20-25% of the total. Some of that market, like ads on public transportation, billboards, flyers, kiosks, etc. is not accessible to Web media, so the share of the accessible market is a bit higher. It's not as if the ceiling remains out of sight. Your comment about traditional ad measures of effectiveness being dodgy probably means pricing will decline when effectiveness can be accurately measured, so that means Internet ads have a still higher share of the theoretical maximum.
- maxerickson 12y ago
  Google alone is ~10% of global advertising revenues. That's at least an interestingly shaped potato. http://investor.google.com/financial/tables.html http://investor.google.com/financial/tables.html (a nice friendly and solid number for global ad revenues is harder to come by, but it's ~$500 billion)
jes5199 12y ago
I've been wondering - is there a point when people lose faith that they're getting ROI by buying adwords? Isn't it possible that the culture may just stop giving money to Google at some point? And then no more aqui-hires, so no more inflated valuations, and then most of us go back to whatever we were doing before we were working at startups, right?

krakensden 12y ago

It's worth noting that web advertising is still small potatoes compared to more traditional channels- and the traditional channels make it astonishingly difficult to measure effectiveness. There's an awful lot of money in selling Coca-Cola, and Pinboard & Facebook haven't scratched the surface.

Zigurd 12y ago
It is a minority of the total, but it is getting up to about 20-25% of the total. Some of that market, like ads on public transportation, billboards, flyers, kiosks, etc. is not accessible to Web media, so the share of the accessible market is a bit higher. It's not as if the ceiling remains out of sight. Your comment about traditional ad measures of effectiveness being dodgy probably means pricing will decline when effectiveness can be accurately measured, so that means Internet ads have a still higher share of the theoretical maximum.
maxerickson 12y ago
Google alone is ~10% of global advertising revenues. That's at least an interestingly shaped potato. http://investor.google.com/financial/tables.html http://investor.google.com/financial/tables.html (a nice friendly and solid number for global ad revenues is harder to come by, but it's ~$500 billion)

jes5199 12y ago

I've been wondering - is there a point when people lose faith that they're getting ROI by buying adwords? Isn't it possible that the culture may just stop giving money to Google at some point? And then no more aqui-hires, so no more inflated valuations, and then most of us go back to whatever we were doing before we were working at startups, right?