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There are 42 years of estimated recoverable oil left (in the top 17 producers) according to 2012 EIA numbers. 1324B/85M/365 = 42.675. http://en.wikipedia.org/
by flavor8 12y ago
There are 42 years of estimated recoverable oil left (in the top 17 producers) according to 2012 EIA numbers.
1324B/85M/365 = 42.675.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves
That assumes no consumption growth. The economic argument from peak oil people says: "OK, when we're down to 10 years of oil left, just how much more expensive is a barrel of oil going to be, given that increasing scarcity is evident? Does that price rise also feed back to 20 years? What does it do to the economy, and/or what alternate forms of energy take its place due to economic pressures?"
So yeah, within your lifetime you'll probably feel the effects one way or the other.
- omilu 12y agoone more reason to invest in tesla and solar city. running out of oil scares the crap out of me. WW3 for sure.
- astrodust 12y agoThere's not enough oil left to fight WW3.
- kbutler 12y agoRather than just the single data point of "current oil reserves", you need to take the 1st derivative, and look at the rate of change in current oil reserves over time. It gives a dramatically different picture.
- flavor8 12y agoCan you provide a link to what you're hinting at?
- astrodust 12y agoSo far the delta in "estimated reserves" is tipping sharply negative because a lot of the glowy estimates by big producers such as Saudi Arabia are turning out to be nothing but wishful thinking and aren't based in reality.