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Without double checking your math, I'm pretty sure the significant error in your conclusion here is modeling the games he's playing as coin flipping with even p
by splonk 12y ago
Without double checking your math, I'm pretty sure the significant error in your conclusion here is modeling the games he's playing as coin flipping with even payouts. The specific game he's playing is actually dropping a percentage each time and is more accurately modeled as "heads I win .98, tails I lose 1". (Technically he's betting $15 for a chance to win $14.69). With that in mind, many fewer than 1 in 28 players would end up with his results.
- flud43 12y agoYes, sorry, I should have specified that each buy-in has a small percentage raked from it which goes to PokerStars for hosting the game. Rake is a part of every form of real money poker. It's how casinos and online poker sites make their $$$'s.
- ronaldx 12y agoTypically in poker, you win quickly and lose slowly. This is especially true of tournaments - finishing in the money suddenly does wonders for your balance. So, I would guess that more than 1 in 28 players would show these results, having experienced a random "win quickly" phase that has yet to dissipate. (This might not apply if parent is talking only about 2 player tournaments, but applies to poker generally)
- splonk 12y agoParent is talking only about 2 player tournaments - that's what the "heads up" part of the description means.
- ronaldx 12y agoOK, I getcha, thanks. Heads Up specifically means that there are match-ups between 2 players. This doesn't mean it's necessarily a 2 player tournament, e.g. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Heads-Up_Poker_Championship#Brackets https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Heads-Up_Poker_Champi... I already checked this case and you are right, indeed.