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The Australian bubble has been largely blamed on two things: - Restrictive policies on land release for development which is the simple classic supply/demand e
by dwd 12y ago
The Australian bubble has been largely blamed on two things:
- Restrictive policies on land release for development which is the simple classic supply/demand explanation
- Low credit costs and negative gearing tax concessions which encourage speculation fueled by debt (Keen, Minsky, et al)
The First Home Owners Grant and other schemes also stimulated demand but any value was quickly absorbed by the rising prices. On top of this spruikers pushing get rich quick on property also inflated the market.
Now, everyone's stuck where they are.
A true correction here will require either a normalisation of interest rates or repeal of negative gearing provisions. Neither of which the current Government are likely to allow.
Most likely it will be a long slide and a lost generation who's best bet will be waiting for an inheritance. That is if their baby boomer parents don't reverse mortgage the house to fund their retirement.
- Balgair 12y agoHmph. Well, I see now that my decision to move out of California has precedence. Thank you. -Supply/demand problem-Check -Low credit costs & speculation (though in a bubbly way)-Check -Unlikely repeal of Prop13-Check -Likelyness of parents selling house & moving to Arizona-Check Yep, getting out sounds better and better
- dwd 12y agoIn a bubbly, Ponzi scheme way. Last one in is left holding the empty can. I used to read this blog back when I was watching for the crash that never was. (Doesn't appear to have happened in Canada either) He had an interesting tax story from a few days ago too about inheriting property. http://www.greaterfool.ca/2014/05/19/gross-me-up/ http://www.greaterfool.ca/2014/05/19/gross-me-up/