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Interesting. For the record I agree with you. Resource scarcity is a looming issue and a game changer. And yet here we are... happily driving our SUV's 50 mile
by jqm 12y ago
Interesting. For the record I agree with you. Resource scarcity is a looming issue and a game changer.
And yet here we are... happily driving our SUV's 50 miles each way to sit at a computer.
(Presumably the Easter Islander that cut down the last tree didn't stop and think "gee, maybe I should have a tiny fire tonight" either.)
So from the point of view of our current way of doing things I do have to say... the long term economic outlook doesn't appear so great. But there are things the "could" happen to change this. A breakthrough in energy (unlikely). A sudden loss of 2-3 billion people from the planet (sadly, more likely). A war resulting in an entirely new social order which is more efficient (or less efficient). Just a lot of factors make it hard to say what will happen.
- dredmorbius 12y agoAnd the timeline is much shorter than most people think. Oil production is already contracting (conventional certainly, net of unconventional "tight" sources such as fracked oil, possibly). Exponential consumption rate exhaustion based on GP's Annual Review 2013 is 2048-2049. Which suggests that flow rates (which sustain modern civilization) will start falling precipitously well before then.