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I fear it might prove to be premature. Take for instance Japan Power Plus. If their battery tech proves to be true, then in a few years lithium batteries will b

I fear it might prove to be premature. Take for instance Japan Power Plus. If their battery tech proves to be true, then in a few years lithium batteries will be on the decline, and Elon will be caught holding the proverbial bag. Even if Japan Power Plus proves to be a bust, there is so much research going on in the field that it seems all too likely that some major new battery tech is around the corner. If Elon can't convert his Gigafactory to that new tech, he'll be hard pressed to recoup his $5 billion.

nkozyra 12y ago
This seems to imply that the factory would be unable to switch its operations to new battery types, which I find somewhat unlikely.
- jacquesm 12y ago
  Agreed, battery manufacture is bulk chemistry. A plant typically consists of a number of recyclable elements and a bunch that are specific to the technology employed. If there would be a game-changing advance in battery technology and the economics would work out in favour of deprecating those parts of the plant that are specific to the current process then I'm sure Elon Musk is capable of doing the math. And given that's he's not exactly stupid to begin with my guess would be that he's ahead of some random comment on the internet by some significant number of brain cycles, 5 billion $ cap-ex projects are usually not planned and executed without a great deal of fore-thought.
kitcar 12y ago
For anyone (like me) wondering who Japan Power Plus / what they built: http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2014/05/the-organic-carbon-battery-from-japan-that-could-spawn-the-next-tesla/362112/ http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2014/05/the-or...
toomuchtodo 12y ago
> If Elon can't convert his Gigafactory to that new tech, he'll be hard pressed to recoup his $5 billion. I just cannot fathom Elon being in this scenario. Perhaps I'm too optimistic?

nkozyra 12y ago

This seems to imply that the factory would be unable to switch its operations to new battery types, which I find somewhat unlikely.

jacquesm 12y ago
Agreed, battery manufacture is bulk chemistry. A plant typically consists of a number of recyclable elements and a bunch that are specific to the technology employed. If there would be a game-changing advance in battery technology and the economics would work out in favour of deprecating those parts of the plant that are specific to the current process then I'm sure Elon Musk is capable of doing the math. And given that's he's not exactly stupid to begin with my guess would be that he's ahead of some random comment on the internet by some significant number of brain cycles, 5 billion $ cap-ex projects are usually not planned and executed without a great deal of fore-thought.

kitcar 12y ago

For anyone (like me) wondering who Japan Power Plus / what they built: http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2014/05/the-organic-carbon-battery-from-japan-that-could-spawn-the-next-tesla/362112/ http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2014/05/the-or...

toomuchtodo 12y ago

> If Elon can't convert his Gigafactory to that new tech, he'll be hard pressed to recoup his $5 billion. I just cannot fathom Elon being in this scenario. Perhaps I'm too optimistic?