4 ms·

Elon Musk: Gigafactory will take battery production 'to another level'

67 points by cryptoz 12y ago

transfire 12y ago
I fear it might prove to be premature. Take for instance Japan Power Plus. If their battery tech proves to be true, then in a few years lithium batteries will be on the decline, and Elon will be caught holding the proverbial bag. Even if Japan Power Plus proves to be a bust, there is so much research going on in the field that it seems all too likely that some major new battery tech is around the corner. If Elon can't convert his Gigafactory to that new tech, he'll be hard pressed to recoup his $5 billion.
- nkozyra 12y ago
  This seems to imply that the factory would be unable to switch its operations to new battery types, which I find somewhat unlikely.
  - jacquesm 12y ago
    Agreed, battery manufacture is bulk chemistry. A plant typically consists of a number of recyclable elements and a bunch that are specific to the technology employed. If there would be a game-changing advance in battery technology and the economics would work out in favour of deprecating those parts of the plant that are specific to the current process then I'm sure Elon Musk is capable of doing the math. And given that's he's not exactly stupid to begin with my guess would be that he's ahead of some random comment on the internet by some significant number of brain cycles, 5 billion $ cap-ex projects are usually not planned and executed without a great deal of fore-thought.
- kitcar 12y ago
  For anyone (like me) wondering who Japan Power Plus / what they built: http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2014/05/the-organic-carbon-battery-from-japan-that-could-spawn-the-next-tesla/362112/ http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2014/05/the-or...
- toomuchtodo 12y ago
  > If Elon can't convert his Gigafactory to that new tech, he'll be hard pressed to recoup his $5 billion. I just cannot fathom Elon being in this scenario. Perhaps I'm too optimistic?
nkozyra 12y ago
Battery & battery replacement cost is a big piece of ammo for people who fight non-combustible automotive energy sources, so fantastic as always. I'm interested to know what sort of contributions Musk & Co have been able to make with regard to battery efficiency and longevity in their time with the Tesla line. That, to me, is the big missing piece to take things from "sure, it could work" to "ok I'm ready to switch" for many.
- beltex 12y ago
  Some interesting snippets of info about batteries from Musk. Battery form factor: http://youtu.be/pQupELupKWM?t=2m15s http://youtu.be/pQupELupKWM?t=2m15s Apple Engineer asking about Tesla battery: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sN5HT9mj_4M http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sN5HT9mj_4M
shoeless 12y ago
Why not Detroit? The labor force is there, the costs (real estate, labor, taxes) must be considerably in favor of something of this scale, and it's in line with the automotive industry. In that Michigan is hurting from the down slide of traditional auto manufacturers, I would think it would endear Tesla to the industry, or at least the workers.
- nkoren 12y ago
  Tesla doesn't need to endear themselves to the workers; they use robots wherever possible. Detroit is home to powerful organisations (the unions) which are famous for their resistance to automation; that, if nothing else, is probably sufficient reason to steer clear of it.
- jusben1369 12y ago
  Do they need to endear themselves though? They seem to be striking partnerships with car manufacturers.
- andrewtbham 12y ago
  Too far from the plant in freeemont
- toomuchtodo 12y ago
  As others have mentioned, Just In Time production capability. If you're in Reno, you're ~3 hours away via roads. If you're in California, you're even less time from the vehicle integration facility.
jusben1369 12y ago
On a side note I hope the folks at a16 will stop using Tesla as a poster child for their belief that full stack startups are strategically better. Tesla and Musk are constantly working with other players in their ecosystem to accelerate growth.
andrewtbham 12y ago
I listened to the Tesla conference call and Elon Musk said that he was calling lithium and nickel mines in Canada, and they were surprised to hear from an end user. The guy knows how to "think from first principles."
Shivetya 12y ago
I still do not see any advantage to skipping over Texas, even Toyota went there. They are simply more business friendly, let alone by far the largest deployment of wind turbines in the US. While many associate it with oil Texas never really sat still, energy is energy.
- FlacidPhil 12y ago
  My guess is because you can't even BUY a Tesla in Texas. Why would they set up a $5B factory in a state where they can't even sell a car? http://www.teslamotors.com/advocacy_texas http://www.teslamotors.com/advocacy_texas EDIT: Amongst other reasons of course, just a guess on one factor. Hard to say it's business friendly when they've banned the company from doing business there.
  - jack-r-abbit 12y ago
    My thought exactly. Don't just pick a place business friendly. Pick a place that is friendly to your business.
- fnordfnordfnord 12y ago
  >They are simply more business friendly That depends upon whose business to which you're referring.
ankurpatel 12y ago
No one seems to be paying attention to the amount of toxic waste that will be generated from batteries after they are done with their usage. The toxin waste is much worse than letting CO2 in the air IMHO.
- rdrdss23 12y ago
  Aren't they recyclable?
  - toomuchtodo 12y ago
    Fully: http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/teslas-closed-loop-battery-recycling-program http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/teslas-closed-loop-battery-r...

67 points by cryptoz 12y ago

I fear it might prove to be premature. Take for instance Japan Power Plus. If their battery tech proves to be true, then in a few years lithium batteries will be on the decline, and Elon will be caught holding the proverbial bag. Even if Japan Power Plus proves to be a bust, there is so much research going on in the field that it seems all too likely that some major new battery tech is around the corner. If Elon can't convert his Gigafactory to that new tech, he'll be hard pressed to recoup his $5 billion.

nkozyra 12y ago
This seems to imply that the factory would be unable to switch its operations to new battery types, which I find somewhat unlikely.
- jacquesm 12y ago
  Agreed, battery manufacture is bulk chemistry. A plant typically consists of a number of recyclable elements and a bunch that are specific to the technology employed. If there would be a game-changing advance in battery technology and the economics would work out in favour of deprecating those parts of the plant that are specific to the current process then I'm sure Elon Musk is capable of doing the math. And given that's he's not exactly stupid to begin with my guess would be that he's ahead of some random comment on the internet by some significant number of brain cycles, 5 billion $ cap-ex projects are usually not planned and executed without a great deal of fore-thought.
kitcar 12y ago
For anyone (like me) wondering who Japan Power Plus / what they built: http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2014/05/the-organic-carbon-battery-from-japan-that-could-spawn-the-next-tesla/362112/ http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2014/05/the-or...
toomuchtodo 12y ago
> If Elon can't convert his Gigafactory to that new tech, he'll be hard pressed to recoup his $5 billion. I just cannot fathom Elon being in this scenario. Perhaps I'm too optimistic?

nkozyra 12y ago

Battery & battery replacement cost is a big piece of ammo for people who fight non-combustible automotive energy sources, so fantastic as always. I'm interested to know what sort of contributions Musk & Co have been able to make with regard to battery efficiency and longevity in their time with the Tesla line. That, to me, is the big missing piece to take things from "sure, it could work" to "ok I'm ready to switch" for many.

beltex 12y ago
Some interesting snippets of info about batteries from Musk. Battery form factor: http://youtu.be/pQupELupKWM?t=2m15s http://youtu.be/pQupELupKWM?t=2m15s Apple Engineer asking about Tesla battery: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sN5HT9mj_4M http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sN5HT9mj_4M

shoeless 12y ago

Why not Detroit? The labor force is there, the costs (real estate, labor, taxes) must be considerably in favor of something of this scale, and it's in line with the automotive industry. In that Michigan is hurting from the down slide of traditional auto manufacturers, I would think it would endear Tesla to the industry, or at least the workers.

nkoren 12y ago
Tesla doesn't need to endear themselves to the workers; they use robots wherever possible. Detroit is home to powerful organisations (the unions) which are famous for their resistance to automation; that, if nothing else, is probably sufficient reason to steer clear of it.
jusben1369 12y ago
Do they need to endear themselves though? They seem to be striking partnerships with car manufacturers.
andrewtbham 12y ago
Too far from the plant in freeemont
toomuchtodo 12y ago
As others have mentioned, Just In Time production capability. If you're in Reno, you're ~3 hours away via roads. If you're in California, you're even less time from the vehicle integration facility.

jusben1369 12y ago

On a side note I hope the folks at a16 will stop using Tesla as a poster child for their belief that full stack startups are strategically better. Tesla and Musk are constantly working with other players in their ecosystem to accelerate growth.

andrewtbham 12y ago

I listened to the Tesla conference call and Elon Musk said that he was calling lithium and nickel mines in Canada, and they were surprised to hear from an end user. The guy knows how to "think from first principles."

Shivetya 12y ago

I still do not see any advantage to skipping over Texas, even Toyota went there. They are simply more business friendly, let alone by far the largest deployment of wind turbines in the US. While many associate it with oil Texas never really sat still, energy is energy.

FlacidPhil 12y ago
My guess is because you can't even BUY a Tesla in Texas. Why would they set up a $5B factory in a state where they can't even sell a car? http://www.teslamotors.com/advocacy_texas http://www.teslamotors.com/advocacy_texas EDIT: Amongst other reasons of course, just a guess on one factor. Hard to say it's business friendly when they've banned the company from doing business there.
- jack-r-abbit 12y ago
  My thought exactly. Don't just pick a place business friendly. Pick a place that is friendly to your business.
fnordfnordfnord 12y ago
>They are simply more business friendly That depends upon whose business to which you're referring.

ankurpatel 12y ago

No one seems to be paying attention to the amount of toxic waste that will be generated from batteries after they are done with their usage. The toxin waste is much worse than letting CO2 in the air IMHO.

rdrdss23 12y ago
Aren't they recyclable?
- toomuchtodo 12y ago
  Fully: http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/teslas-closed-loop-battery-recycling-program http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/teslas-closed-loop-battery-r...