Their gamble was also time-based. This shift was imminent. No such thing is nearly as critical today. You can be edging into such a play, but having all the sta

Their gamble was also time-based. This shift was imminent. No such thing is nearly as critical today. You can be edging into such a play, but having all the stars align - being in the right place with the right amount of capital leverage, and sitting at the precipice of an actionable event happens maybe once every 10-20 years. You can be right about the problem, but being able to enter and exit a market to benefit from such prescience requires a lot of timing. If the wreck is slow motion, you can lost most of the utility of your insight by transaction fees, interest, and the contrarian, emotional whims of the market you play in. It's better to have other peoples' money at your disposal. Hedge fund managers are in a great spot.