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The point is that the first mature dominant players in those markets were Microsoft and Google. That's not to say that the dominant player can't be challenged,

The point is that the first mature dominant players in those markets were Microsoft and Google. That's not to say that the dominant player can't be challenged, it's just that the next 100 billion dollar company will start in a new market with no mature dominant player (e.g. Facebook on social networks).

sergiosgc 12y ago
Altavista was dominant when Google entered the fray. MySpace was dominant when FB took off. Whenever there is space for innovation and the incumbent does not react, a new player appears. Facebook is my next to be toppled over bet. There is a huge space for innovation and FB is not nimble and quick to react nor it is particularly innovative on its own. Acquisitions and the social network barrier to entry protect FB, but they don't hold forever.
- jessriedel 12y ago
  At some point the incumbent becomes so large and diversified that it can't be destroyed by a single competitor. Think IBM. You may come in and beat the incumbent company in the market that originally led to its success, but the incumbent still lives on in many other markets. The only way it is killed is by being consistently less fficient than the average entrant in many markets (i.e. Goliath falls, but there is no David to point to). Facebook may reach that point before to long, although I'd guess they're not there yet.
  - sergiosgc 12y ago
    IBM was beaten. They failed to evaluate the importance of the micro computer. Further, they failed to see the threat of micro computer-born CPUs to their business. The fact that IBM had enough momentum and clarividence to pivot into consulting is not relevant for this discussion. Today's IBM is not at all the IBM from the seventies.
  - dcpdx 12y ago
    Sounds kind of like how Kodak died out. It failed to anticipate the speed at which the market would shift into digital imaging and did a crappy job at entering other non-film markets (printers, cameras, etc). It's cash cow rapidly shrank to the point it couldn't fund viable entrants into new markets.
chasing 12y ago
This is a bit circular, saying essentially that the winner is the innovator for winning.
- sjg007 12y ago
  The last mover?

sergiosgc 12y ago

Altavista was dominant when Google entered the fray. MySpace was dominant when FB took off. Whenever there is space for innovation and the incumbent does not react, a new player appears. Facebook is my next to be toppled over bet. There is a huge space for innovation and FB is not nimble and quick to react nor it is particularly innovative on its own. Acquisitions and the social network barrier to entry protect FB, but they don't hold forever.

jessriedel 12y ago
At some point the incumbent becomes so large and diversified that it can't be destroyed by a single competitor. Think IBM. You may come in and beat the incumbent company in the market that originally led to its success, but the incumbent still lives on in many other markets. The only way it is killed is by being consistently less fficient than the average entrant in many markets (i.e. Goliath falls, but there is no David to point to). Facebook may reach that point before to long, although I'd guess they're not there yet.
- sergiosgc 12y ago
  IBM was beaten. They failed to evaluate the importance of the micro computer. Further, they failed to see the threat of micro computer-born CPUs to their business. The fact that IBM had enough momentum and clarividence to pivot into consulting is not relevant for this discussion. Today's IBM is not at all the IBM from the seventies.
- dcpdx 12y ago
  Sounds kind of like how Kodak died out. It failed to anticipate the speed at which the market would shift into digital imaging and did a crappy job at entering other non-film markets (printers, cameras, etc). It's cash cow rapidly shrank to the point it couldn't fund viable entrants into new markets.

chasing 12y ago

This is a bit circular, saying essentially that the winner is the innovator for winning.

sjg007 12y ago
The last mover?