4 ms·

I personally lost a little over 9 months salary. The missus was not pleased :-) To be honest, the entire gambit rested on the results of the Greek election [1

by ZenPro 12y ago

I personally lost a little over 9 months salary. The missus was not pleased :-) To be honest, the entire gambit rested on the results of the Greek election [1]. If Tsiparis (Syriza) had of won then everyone who shorted would have made a killing as they pledged to cease any repayments. Exit polls had them possibly winning at 7pm with the possibility lessened by 05.% at 8pm. As it happened, the result was 26.9% to Syrizas and the winners (ND/DISY) with 29.7%; the markets already started climbing that evening and within a few days the majority of short positions were untenable incurring substantial losses. Most media outlets agreed that a Tsiparis win would have resulted in a Greece exit from the Eurozone with the currency plummeting. Foreign Affairs stated that ...the election determined whether Greece would exit the eurozone and decide the fate of the entire postwar European project. [2] The entire issue came down to just 170,475 votes (>2% of the voting population). [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_legislative_election,_June_2012 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_legislative_election,_Jun... [2]http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/137710/stathis-n-kalyvas/greece-votes-itself-in-the-foot http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/137710/stathis-n-kaly...

bsaul 12y ago
Because you think that it's up to a greek political party to endanger the whole eurozone ? Even if they had won, them leaving was really less than certain. Most political parties tend to change a lot once they actually have to take the decisions, and believe me, in that case there were a lot of things other euro countries could have done to prevent any kind of greek disastrous initiative.
- ZenPro 12y ago
  Where did I say I believed it was up to a Greek Political Party to endanger the whole Eurozone? I said I believed they would. I didn't say that it was up to which implies moral positioning. Them leaving was absolutely certain. Tsiparis was quite clear in his intentions and he had the popular mandate. There was very few things the other European countries could have done to prevent Syriza following through on their pledge. The precedent already existed with Iceland. If you refuse to pay out monies owed, very few nations or trade bodies can compel you to actually cough up. No one was proposing a land invasion of Greece and the fire-sale of assets was practically complete. You have strayed into several massively complex issues with your response. [1] Should a sovereign nation be allowed to enter and exit treaties when they wish/populace demands it? [2] If sovereign nations vote not to honour an agreement can external nations compel them to do so? [3] Does Greece have a larger responsibility to the unity of the European Union? [4] Would Tsiparis have followed through on his claims? I believe the answer to 4 is yes. My description of my trading activity did not talk about points 1-3 so I have no idea why you have brought those issues up. Either way, we will never know and I lost money. <shrug> Personally I still think the Euro is doomed but if I am honest that is because of what I read, not really any great insight of my own. I have no PHd in Economics.
  - emilga 12y ago
    How do you stay informed on economics? Any tips or recommendations?
    - ZenPro 12y ago
      Nothing beyond the mainstream, plus I lost. I am not the best place to ask for advice ;-) Saying that - I didn't sink any money into Mt. Gox so not all bad.
  - bsaul 12y ago
    Sorry for the expression. English isn't my primary language. I meant it in a different meaning : "because you think a greek political party has the power to endanger..." As for your other point. I believe that it's all a matter of power relationship. Moral isn't really effective. Your trading activities ignored the fact that a country like greece has all kinds of binds and ties to other eurozone countries, and thus aren't completely free to do whatever they want ( at least not without dealing with a lot of hostile behaviors).
    - ZenPro 12y ago
      No worries - I never downvoted. Your comment makes sense now. You are right that sovereign nations cannot do completely as they wish but when it comes to economic developments, history sides with demonstrating that countries will and do default on debts to other sovereign nations. Almost every nation on earth, since 1500 has defaulted on a national debt. I personally believe, given the conviction of the political party, the outrage of the populace and the crippling economic cuts that Greece absolutely would have defaulted under Tsiparis and the Euro would have faced an extremely damning future. Precedents -- [1] During the last week of 2001, the Rodriguez Saá government of Argentina defaulted on the larger part of the public debt, totalling US$132 billion. The amount approximately represented one seventh of all the money borrowed by the Third World. [2] A chart of all sovereign debt defaults since 1980 http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/TDfkTfwd8LI/AAAAAAAAIwg/mwNeNEuCZuA/s1600/SIGSovereignDefaults2003.jpg http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/TDfkTfwd8LI/AAAAAAAAIw...
parenthesis 12y ago
If the bet had gone your way, how many months' salary would you have made?
- ZenPro 12y ago
  It would have been depending on how long I let it run but somewhere in the region of 36-40 months. Maybe more TBH.
jacquesm 12y ago
> The missus was not pleased :-) She should have been just as 'not pleased' had your bet paid off. Going on the assumption that one should not bet such sums without full consent of one's partner...
- ZenPro 12y ago
  Nothing you have stated there is untrue.
revelation 12y ago
This is a post-facto rationalization. It's no wonder you lost.
- ZenPro 12y ago
  ...que? Elaborate how the majority of the world's press and a fair substantial amount of financial analysts and traders predicting an item is post-rationalizing? Do you even know what it means? Post-Rational Purhcasing otherwise known as Buyer's Stockholm Syndrome, is a cognitive bias whereby someone who has purchased an expensive product or service overlooks any faults or defects in order to justify their purchase. I am not rationalizing anything. I bet with a number of other shorters (estimates were around 30% of the trades were shorts) and I lost. You need to check your bias at the door I think.

by ZenPro 12y ago

bsaul 12y ago

Because you think that it's up to a greek political party to endanger the whole eurozone ? Even if they had won, them leaving was really less than certain. Most political parties tend to change a lot once they actually have to take the decisions, and believe me, in that case there were a lot of things other euro countries could have done to prevent any kind of greek disastrous initiative.

ZenPro 12y ago
Where did I say I believed it was up to a Greek Political Party to endanger the whole Eurozone? I said I believed they would. I didn't say that it was up to which implies moral positioning. Them leaving was absolutely certain. Tsiparis was quite clear in his intentions and he had the popular mandate. There was very few things the other European countries could have done to prevent Syriza following through on their pledge. The precedent already existed with Iceland. If you refuse to pay out monies owed, very few nations or trade bodies can compel you to actually cough up. No one was proposing a land invasion of Greece and the fire-sale of assets was practically complete. You have strayed into several massively complex issues with your response. [1] Should a sovereign nation be allowed to enter and exit treaties when they wish/populace demands it? [2] If sovereign nations vote not to honour an agreement can external nations compel them to do so? [3] Does Greece have a larger responsibility to the unity of the European Union? [4] Would Tsiparis have followed through on his claims? I believe the answer to 4 is yes. My description of my trading activity did not talk about points 1-3 so I have no idea why you have brought those issues up. Either way, we will never know and I lost money. <shrug> Personally I still think the Euro is doomed but if I am honest that is because of what I read, not really any great insight of my own. I have no PHd in Economics.
- emilga 12y ago
  How do you stay informed on economics? Any tips or recommendations?
  - ZenPro 12y ago
    Nothing beyond the mainstream, plus I lost. I am not the best place to ask for advice ;-) Saying that - I didn't sink any money into Mt. Gox so not all bad.
- bsaul 12y ago
  Sorry for the expression. English isn't my primary language. I meant it in a different meaning : "because you think a greek political party has the power to endanger..." As for your other point. I believe that it's all a matter of power relationship. Moral isn't really effective. Your trading activities ignored the fact that a country like greece has all kinds of binds and ties to other eurozone countries, and thus aren't completely free to do whatever they want ( at least not without dealing with a lot of hostile behaviors).
  - ZenPro 12y ago
    No worries - I never downvoted. Your comment makes sense now. You are right that sovereign nations cannot do completely as they wish but when it comes to economic developments, history sides with demonstrating that countries will and do default on debts to other sovereign nations. Almost every nation on earth, since 1500 has defaulted on a national debt. I personally believe, given the conviction of the political party, the outrage of the populace and the crippling economic cuts that Greece absolutely would have defaulted under Tsiparis and the Euro would have faced an extremely damning future. Precedents -- [1] During the last week of 2001, the Rodriguez Saá government of Argentina defaulted on the larger part of the public debt, totalling US$132 billion. The amount approximately represented one seventh of all the money borrowed by the Third World. [2] A chart of all sovereign debt defaults since 1980 http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/TDfkTfwd8LI/AAAAAAAAIwg/mwNeNEuCZuA/s1600/SIGSovereignDefaults2003.jpg http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/TDfkTfwd8LI/AAAAAAAAIw...

parenthesis 12y ago

If the bet had gone your way, how many months' salary would you have made?

ZenPro 12y ago
It would have been depending on how long I let it run but somewhere in the region of 36-40 months. Maybe more TBH.

jacquesm 12y ago

> The missus was not pleased :-) She should have been just as 'not pleased' had your bet paid off. Going on the assumption that one should not bet such sums without full consent of one's partner...

ZenPro 12y ago
Nothing you have stated there is untrue.

revelation 12y ago

This is a post-facto rationalization. It's no wonder you lost.

ZenPro 12y ago
...que? Elaborate how the majority of the world's press and a fair substantial amount of financial analysts and traders predicting an item is post-rationalizing? Do you even know what it means? Post-Rational Purhcasing otherwise known as Buyer's Stockholm Syndrome, is a cognitive bias whereby someone who has purchased an expensive product or service overlooks any faults or defects in order to justify their purchase. I am not rationalizing anything. I bet with a number of other shorters (estimates were around 30% of the trades were shorts) and I lost. You need to check your bias at the door I think.