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Upvoted because I think it's important in this case to read an opposing view. After all, predicting a crash is not in itself confirmation of insight - at any p
by jsankey 17y ago
Upvoted because I think it's important in this case to read an opposing view. After all, predicting a crash is not in itself confirmation of insight - at any point in time there will be some people making the prediction, so when a crash inevitably happens some people come out looking like geniuses.
As for who is right, frankly that's going to take a lot more digestion...
- Devilboy 17y agoTaleb really did predict 7 out of the last 2 recessions.
- nir 17y agoI think he'd probably agree - by definition, his theory means that he's no better at predictions than anyone else, and as I understand his investment strategy, he positions himself so that being right once in a while covers the losses of being wrong the rest of the time.