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I think SpaceX is awesome, but NASA's engineers aren't bozos or incompetent. The entire space shuttle history is one of competing and conflicting political ambi

I think SpaceX is awesome, but NASA's engineers aren't bozos or incompetent. The entire space shuttle history is one of competing and conflicting political ambitions all being shoved onto it, and that's why the whole thing is hard for any engineer to do right. That said, I think it's pretty obvious that even after SpaceX successfully lands a Stage 1, they are going to do lots of simulated and real-world testing before using one for any customer cargo. I can see the day in the future, though, when a first stage that has been launched 2 or 3 times is considered safer than a first stage that has been launched 0 times. I anticipate a bathtub curve of failures.

InclinedPlane 13y ago
NASA's engineers may not be bozos but they aren't authorities on what's possible either. And they have weaknesses just like any professionals. They especially have a weakness to imagine that something they have failed at achieving is actually a lot more difficult than it truly is. Nobody wants to imagine that they are incompetent or that they've missed something so obvious that they turned something that should have easy into something incredibly difficult. But it seems increasingly obvious that this is precisely what NASA has done.
nickff 13y ago
The most interesting part of SpaceX's plan is that even if the subsequent launches are riskier than the first, it will still be worth doing for the customers, as the average launch price will be much cheaper. Launch costs have come to dominate satellite non-recurring expenditures, so it will would be worth building a couple of extra satellites for every constellation, and knowing that some may be lost on launch. Some buyers who are risk averse may opt to only use first-launch rockets, while others who are cost sensitive will buy rockets on their last legs. This could revolutionize the entire launch market, and enable many more low-cost satellites to be launched.

InclinedPlane 13y ago

NASA's engineers may not be bozos but they aren't authorities on what's possible either. And they have weaknesses just like any professionals. They especially have a weakness to imagine that something they have failed at achieving is actually a lot more difficult than it truly is. Nobody wants to imagine that they are incompetent or that they've missed something so obvious that they turned something that should have easy into something incredibly difficult. But it seems increasingly obvious that this is precisely what NASA has done.

nickff 13y ago

The most interesting part of SpaceX's plan is that even if the subsequent launches are riskier than the first, it will still be worth doing for the customers, as the average launch price will be much cheaper. Launch costs have come to dominate satellite non-recurring expenditures, so it will would be worth building a couple of extra satellites for every constellation, and knowing that some may be lost on launch. Some buyers who are risk averse may opt to only use first-launch rockets, while others who are cost sensitive will buy rockets on their last legs. This could revolutionize the entire launch market, and enable many more low-cost satellites to be launched.