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I'm not sure I understand the relationship of this Chanos article from 2 years ago to the posted article, whcich details comments from the Nomura Group, which,
by prewett 13y ago
I'm not sure I understand the relationship of this Chanos article from 2 years ago to the posted article, whcich details comments from the Nomura Group, which, as far as I can tell, has no relationship to Chanos.
I also disagree with some of Chanos' points regarding rent. At least in Beijing, rent is quite expensive, and unaffordable for most Chinese. Unmarried people live with multiple roommates in places that, to the American eye, look like slums. Rents in Beijing went up an average of 20% last year (although we talked my landlord down to 10%, I think). Now it might be that rents as a proportion of the owner's income is not worth the hassle, thay could very well be. But rents in Beijing are not affordable.
Regarding vacancies, the common wisdom among expats in Beijing is that the reason is that people consider apartments to lose value if it is rented. That might be related to the reputation of Chinese renters; I have heard from a number of sources that renters in China often trash the place, although I have no way to verify that.
Anyway, if the point of the parent post is to say that this article is incorrect because some cried wolf two years ago, I strongly disagree. 20% rent increase per year (or even 10%) is not sustainable. Nor is that exponential curve in the article sustainable. The crash may or may not have happened, and may or may not happen in the future, but the current situation cannot continue forever.