3 ms·

A few quick thoughts: 1) That's a particularly horrendous timeframe to try and draw long term conclusions from. 2) Small business people are more conservative

A few quick thoughts: 1) That's a particularly horrendous timeframe to try and draw long term conclusions from. 2) Small business people are more conservative than ever right now (ie not starting businesses). Large enterprises have also suffered from this same conservative approach (sitting on massive piles of cash vs investing) It's a very conservative business climate across the spectrum. 3) Some have argued that larger companies have gotten more nimble at competing in the last decade and so the opportunities aren't always there for small businesses to move into gaps 4) Healthcare costs have skyrocketed in the last 10 years and have been risky (losing coverage) which has a very real dampening effect on individuals quitting corporate jobs to start businesses. There's a pocket of people who believe the ACA will have one of it's biggest impacts in this area (workforce mobility has also declined in last 10 years) This is good stuff and worth watching but I would want to wait until the end of 2016 for some of the above to play out before drawing long terms conclusions around the US economy.

brudgers 12y ago
I'd agree that long term conclusions might be suspect, but then again "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." However the US demographic shift toward a greying population suggests that the pool of people likely to start businesses is shrinking. In the short term, people start businesses when they are optimistic or at least naive about the economy. And the sort of people who historically have started small businesses as a means to achieve economic mobility are exactly the people who are likely to be least optimistic these days.
- jusben1369 12y ago
  You raise a good point I forgot to address. The proportion of new businesses that are started by first generation immigrants. It's much higher in that population than with people born stateside. When you add together the unattractiveness of the economy (dampening interest to migrate) along with an uptick in anti-immigration sentiments it's not hard to see this being a big part of any short term reduction in new businesses.

brudgers 12y ago

I'd agree that long term conclusions might be suspect, but then again "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." However the US demographic shift toward a greying population suggests that the pool of people likely to start businesses is shrinking. In the short term, people start businesses when they are optimistic or at least naive about the economy. And the sort of people who historically have started small businesses as a means to achieve economic mobility are exactly the people who are likely to be least optimistic these days.

jusben1369 12y ago
You raise a good point I forgot to address. The proportion of new businesses that are started by first generation immigrants. It's much higher in that population than with people born stateside. When you add together the unattractiveness of the economy (dampening interest to migrate) along with an uptick in anti-immigration sentiments it's not hard to see this being a big part of any short term reduction in new businesses.