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$700k/mo * 12 = $8.4M/year (not $1.14M). So they're nearing profitability, have triple-digit per year growth, and the latest investors get liquidation preferen

by beambot 13y ago

$700k/mo * 12 = $8.4M/year (not $1.14M). So they're nearing profitability, have triple-digit per year growth, and the latest investors get liquidation preference that limits their downside. EDIT: Fred Wilson has a good explanation about why "frothy" valuations make sense right now: http://avc.com/2014/03/the-bubble-question/ http://avc.com/2014/03/the-bubble-question/

wellboy 13y ago
A sorry for the miscalculation, did that on the way out the door. Just thinking how big the market is. According to https://www.quantcast.com/top-sites/US?jump-to=110000 https://www.quantcast.com/top-sites/US?jump-to=110000 there are 110,000 sites with >10k monthly visitors, so I think that's the market of which they probably can get 30k users max for which they can charge $100/month on average: 30,000 $10012 = $36M/year revenue. So for web, that's the cap it seems. According to http://www.appbrain.com/stats/android-app-downloads http://www.appbrain.com/stats/android-app-downloads, there are 200,000 Android apps that have >100,000 downloads, which probably equates to 10k monthly active users, with iOS apps that's 400,000. So this will probably bring another $72M/year making it $108M revenue cap for Optimizely. So looks like the money for Optimizely is in the app market. With 300 employees at max that's a burn rate of $15M + $25M marketing + $10M other costs, we got a profit of $58M = maybe $700M company, not bad. Back of the envelope calculation, probably totally wrong, ok now back to work :)
- beambot 13y ago
  I can guarantee their TAM is >$108M / yr. I am involved in two websites that get a lot more than 10k visitors / month. Neither are listed in Quantcast. Using (crummy) traffic estimates based on Alexa ranks, I'd wager that there are at least 600,000 websites that would qualify for your >10k monthly visitors mark. But I suppose it's all a moot point: They convinced at least one VC to invest, and that's all that matters. (Having used their product in the past, I probably would've invested too given the opportunity. Their product is pretty slick and saves a lot of time compared building your own A/B testing framework.)
  - matnewton85 13y ago
    Agreed. One of my sites is ranked 490,000 or so in Alexa. The worst month in the last year was 165,000 visits.

by beambot 13y ago

wellboy 13y ago

A sorry for the miscalculation, did that on the way out the door. Just thinking how big the market is. According to https://www.quantcast.com/top-sites/US?jump-to=110000 https://www.quantcast.com/top-sites/US?jump-to=110000 there are 110,000 sites with >10k monthly visitors, so I think that's the market of which they probably can get 30k users max for which they can charge $100/month on average: 30,000 $10012 = $36M/year revenue. So for web, that's the cap it seems. According to http://www.appbrain.com/stats/android-app-downloads http://www.appbrain.com/stats/android-app-downloads, there are 200,000 Android apps that have >100,000 downloads, which probably equates to 10k monthly active users, with iOS apps that's 400,000. So this will probably bring another $72M/year making it $108M revenue cap for Optimizely. So looks like the money for Optimizely is in the app market. With 300 employees at max that's a burn rate of $15M + $25M marketing + $10M other costs, we got a profit of $58M = maybe $700M company, not bad. Back of the envelope calculation, probably totally wrong, ok now back to work :)

beambot 13y ago
I can guarantee their TAM is >$108M / yr. I am involved in two websites that get a lot more than 10k visitors / month. Neither are listed in Quantcast. Using (crummy) traffic estimates based on Alexa ranks, I'd wager that there are at least 600,000 websites that would qualify for your >10k monthly visitors mark. But I suppose it's all a moot point: They convinced at least one VC to invest, and that's all that matters. (Having used their product in the past, I probably would've invested too given the opportunity. Their product is pretty slick and saves a lot of time compared building your own A/B testing framework.)
- matnewton85 13y ago
  Agreed. One of my sites is ranked 490,000 or so in Alexa. The worst month in the last year was 165,000 visits.