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there are audited returns for NNT's hedge fund floating around on the web. while his options strategies will make money in the worst year, they bleed money in a

by lmg643 12y ago

there are audited returns for NNT's hedge fund floating around on the web. while his options strategies will make money in the worst year, they bleed money in all other years. Unfortunately for him, average returns count, and the fund was shut down. When i first started out learning about finance - say, 14 years ago - i was really taken by NNT. he seemed like an unheralded genius. Now that i've read a lot and understand enough about what he was doing, he seems like a bitter person who dispenses questionable advice in a nasty fashion. NNT appeals to financial "outsiders" because it gives a sense of power to think they know something about the flaws of the insiders. I would say just about everyone would be better off reading the collected letters of warren buffett, and forget you ever heard of NNT. and if you want an interesting unorthodox quant, read eric falkenstein.

HelloMcFly 12y ago
> ...his options strategies will make money in the worst year, they bleed money in all other years.... average returns count I'm not an expert in his line of thinking, nor do I currently practice his method of investing, but isn't his goal to hedge against loss (with potential for profit from it when it strikes others) rather than maximizing profits on the whole? I imagine he'd be upset that an "average" would be the ultimate indicator of the worth of his ideas. Outside of the practical utility of his investment advice (which is outside of my interest area, for better or worse), I still think his work deserves one's attention and would not direct them away from NNT as you have. I'd probably skip the first book, and I've not read Antifragile yet, but it at least gives some probably needed context to the modern fixation on normally-distributed data as evidenced by the simplistic quantification of so many things (e.g., the Freakonomics podcast). But he does speak like a man of dogma, something that always makes me wary.
- eli_gottlieb 12y ago
  >I've not read Antifragile yet, but it at least gives some probably needed context to the modern fixation on normally-distributed data as evidenced by the simplistic quantification of so many things (e.g., the Freakonomics podcast). If you want a man of dogma who's going to criticize the overuse of normal distributions to generate illusorily "informative" statistics, I think you'd be better off with E.T. Jaynes.
  - HelloMcFly 12y ago
    I've read E.T. Jaynes. Also good, but way less approachable (or affordable, which matters for recommendations and for their relevance to the public). They scratch different itches for different audiences, even if their "enemy" is the same.

by lmg643 12y ago

HelloMcFly 12y ago

> ...his options strategies will make money in the worst year, they bleed money in all other years.... average returns count I'm not an expert in his line of thinking, nor do I currently practice his method of investing, but isn't his goal to hedge against loss (with potential for profit from it when it strikes others) rather than maximizing profits on the whole? I imagine he'd be upset that an "average" would be the ultimate indicator of the worth of his ideas. Outside of the practical utility of his investment advice (which is outside of my interest area, for better or worse), I still think his work deserves one's attention and would not direct them away from NNT as you have. I'd probably skip the first book, and I've not read Antifragile yet, but it at least gives some probably needed context to the modern fixation on normally-distributed data as evidenced by the simplistic quantification of so many things (e.g., the Freakonomics podcast). But he does speak like a man of dogma, something that always makes me wary.

eli_gottlieb 12y ago
>I've not read Antifragile yet, but it at least gives some probably needed context to the modern fixation on normally-distributed data as evidenced by the simplistic quantification of so many things (e.g., the Freakonomics podcast). If you want a man of dogma who's going to criticize the overuse of normal distributions to generate illusorily "informative" statistics, I think you'd be better off with E.T. Jaynes.
- HelloMcFly 12y ago
  I've read E.T. Jaynes. Also good, but way less approachable (or affordable, which matters for recommendations and for their relevance to the public). They scratch different itches for different audiences, even if their "enemy" is the same.