I think these predictions are way off base. One trap that the author falls into is by measuring time spent using a computing device. The idea being that this is

I think these predictions are way off base. One trap that the author falls into is by measuring time spent using a computing device. The idea being that this is the most important metric, but it's not. Not all computing activities are comparable in importance. There is an underlying value of the time spent computing, and that in turn affects the need to own different computing devices and so on. Today computing is ubiquitous for some people, but the value people place on the time they use a mobile phone to catch up on facebook or reddit may not be the same as the value they place on the time they use a tablet or a pc to do something more substantive. Moreover, tablets are still less mature than other computers and don't have the same market penetration so naive comparisons don't necessarily spell universal truths. I think ultimately the average person will end up using both smartphones, tablets, and keyboarded computers in the future. With varying degrees of use depending on their own habits, hobbies, and jobs. I especially don't think that the tablet is going to go away, it will have its niche and it will be a big one. Edit: I think a fundamental problem with DCurtis' reasoning is the idea that we are at the end of a massive change in computing, rather than at the beginning of a new revolution in personal computing. I believe that the latter is true, that the changes which will occur over the next 20 years in computing will be more profound and more impactful on daily life around the world than what has occurred over the past 20 or even 30 years. Part of that will involve the penetration of tablet style (or hybrid tablet/laptop) computers into the workplace, something that has not yet happened to a significant degree. Part of that will involve the revolution in education via educational software that will almost certainly occur within the next 20 years, which will likely be most commonly used on tablet form-factor computers, not phones.