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Children and young adults don't have tablets and cell phones because they have limited disposable income. Kids also don't need appointment books, the ability t

by RogerL 12y ago

Children and young adults don't have tablets and cell phones because they have limited disposable income. Kids also don't need appointment books, the ability to read/edit documents from work, and so on. They also have smaller hands - a cell phone is already big to them. Their eyesight is at the best that it will ever be. I would have been able to use a cell screen to browse the internet at 20; now, not so much.

dcurtis 12y ago
A lot of the supporting data comes from adults 18-29. I include data from teens 14-20, because I think the habits they are learning will continue as they grow older.
- deleted 12y ago
  [deleted]
dmsinger 12y ago
This is similar what I was going to say: disposable income, behavior; and I was going to add replacement cycle. > If you want to predict the future, just look at what middle-class American teens are doing. I know people love to say/write this, but I'm trying to think of a period of time where this has held up within the last century. Technology, especially today, doesn't allow it. Also, teens hop on and off of fads quicker than any age group. Teens and early-20s adults have behaviors that will all change within just a few years, along with the things they deem necessary vs nice-to-have. That the iPad, or tablet, has plateaued (or even shrinking) may be true, but I don't think the data or reasoning supports it.
jseliger 12y ago
This isn't an original view, but I suspect that PCs will become specialized devices for particular groups (professional writers / coders / video editors, or those who aspire to do professional work; PC gaming enthusiasts; a couple of others), while most other people doing most other things will migrate to cell- and tablet-like form factors; maybe they'll have a computer around for something but does it matter if the computer is five or even ten years old? The migration factor would seem to be an important part of Dustin's point—along with the idea that teens and 20-somethings are leading indicators, as they were for social networks, mp3s, etc. (I'm typing this on a 27" iMac but would broadly define myself as part of the "specialist" group.) Incidentally, cameras appear to be following a similar trajectory to PCs, with sales falling off in the last two or so years. See e.g. http://www.dslrbodies.com/newsviews/when-will-the-panic-start.html http://www.dslrbodies.com/newsviews/when-will-the-panic-star... or http://www.dslrbodies.com/newsviews/march-2014-nikon-news/have-we-gone-as-far-as-well.html http://www.dslrbodies.com/newsviews/march-2014-nikon-news/ha....
- ekianjo 12y ago
  > Incidentally, cameras appear to be following a similar trajectory to PCs, with sales falling off in the last two or so years. Yeah, but just like the PC, phones are never going to replace reflex cameras, for a number of reasons I will not develop here. It's not because a market actor gains or loses that it wipes the entire market - and that was Dustin's entire point.
- CmonDev 12y ago
  "aspire to do professional work" - any office work really. I think the future is coming to your office and getting a bigger screen via a wireless connection to your tablet automatically (like Surface Pro with Miracast). You even said "27 iMac" instead of "powerful iMac".
- aufreak3 12y ago
  There is, for me, a peculiar connection between cameras and pc computing power (I used to work for muvee technologies). As computing power grows, I've been quite frustrated with how he extra tends to get eaten up by a higher qualiy video format. 320x240 was enough at one point and 300mhz machines could deal with these well. Then came DV at 720x576@30fps, needing faster machines. We have HD today at 1920x1080. Each step has so far been 4x bump in resolution. We're now going to get hit by another 2x bump - 4k video, and then perhaps a bump to the frame rat to 60fps (or at least 48fps). Today's "normal pc" compute power is inadequate for 4k video ... Unless you plug in a decent gpu and your machine includes a decent bandwidth to that gpu. Given that parents have always wanted to film thir kids at the highest quality they can afford, where do you thnk this trend might take us industry wise? Edit: if i cannot type out this post error free, mobiles phons suck as PC replacements ;)

by RogerL 12y ago

dcurtis 12y ago

A lot of the supporting data comes from adults 18-29. I include data from teens 14-20, because I think the habits they are learning will continue as they grow older.

deleted 12y ago
[deleted]

dmsinger 12y ago

This is similar what I was going to say: disposable income, behavior; and I was going to add replacement cycle. > If you want to predict the future, just look at what middle-class American teens are doing. I know people love to say/write this, but I'm trying to think of a period of time where this has held up within the last century. Technology, especially today, doesn't allow it. Also, teens hop on and off of fads quicker than any age group. Teens and early-20s adults have behaviors that will all change within just a few years, along with the things they deem necessary vs nice-to-have. That the iPad, or tablet, has plateaued (or even shrinking) may be true, but I don't think the data or reasoning supports it.

jseliger 12y ago

This isn't an original view, but I suspect that PCs will become specialized devices for particular groups (professional writers / coders / video editors, or those who aspire to do professional work; PC gaming enthusiasts; a couple of others), while most other people doing most other things will migrate to cell- and tablet-like form factors; maybe they'll have a computer around for something but does it matter if the computer is five or even ten years old? The migration factor would seem to be an important part of Dustin's point—along with the idea that teens and 20-somethings are leading indicators, as they were for social networks, mp3s, etc. (I'm typing this on a 27" iMac but would broadly define myself as part of the "specialist" group.) Incidentally, cameras appear to be following a similar trajectory to PCs, with sales falling off in the last two or so years. See e.g. http://www.dslrbodies.com/newsviews/when-will-the-panic-start.html http://www.dslrbodies.com/newsviews/when-will-the-panic-star... or http://www.dslrbodies.com/newsviews/march-2014-nikon-news/have-we-gone-as-far-as-well.html http://www.dslrbodies.com/newsviews/march-2014-nikon-news/ha....

ekianjo 12y ago
> Incidentally, cameras appear to be following a similar trajectory to PCs, with sales falling off in the last two or so years. Yeah, but just like the PC, phones are never going to replace reflex cameras, for a number of reasons I will not develop here. It's not because a market actor gains or loses that it wipes the entire market - and that was Dustin's entire point.
CmonDev 12y ago
"aspire to do professional work" - any office work really. I think the future is coming to your office and getting a bigger screen via a wireless connection to your tablet automatically (like Surface Pro with Miracast). You even said "27 iMac" instead of "powerful iMac".
aufreak3 12y ago
There is, for me, a peculiar connection between cameras and pc computing power (I used to work for muvee technologies). As computing power grows, I've been quite frustrated with how he extra tends to get eaten up by a higher qualiy video format. 320x240 was enough at one point and 300mhz machines could deal with these well. Then came DV at 720x576@30fps, needing faster machines. We have HD today at 1920x1080. Each step has so far been 4x bump in resolution. We're now going to get hit by another 2x bump - 4k video, and then perhaps a bump to the frame rat to 60fps (or at least 48fps). Today's "normal pc" compute power is inadequate for 4k video ... Unless you plug in a decent gpu and your machine includes a decent bandwidth to that gpu. Given that parents have always wanted to film thir kids at the highest quality they can afford, where do you thnk this trend might take us industry wise? Edit: if i cannot type out this post error free, mobiles phons suck as PC replacements ;)