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So every few weeks we get these news but this isn't reversible anyway i guess. Does this basically mean a lot more people will die from simple infections starti

by kayoone 13y ago

So every few weeks we get these news but this isn't reversible anyway i guess. Does this basically mean a lot more people will die from simple infections starting 1-2 years from now ? How likely is it that new antibiotics will be developed ? By reading articles like these it sounds like we are facing a massive increase in deaths from illnesses, yet the general public doesn't seem to care much. Genuinely curious.

refurb 13y ago
Does this basically mean a lot more people will die from simple infections starting 1-2 years from now ? No, the problem is not that severe right now. In fact, some of the antibiotic resistant infections have decreased over the last few years. This is something we need to worry about 5-10+ years from now. It is inevitable that bacteria will become resistant to current antibiotics. The only way to keep ahead of them is to create new antibiotics.
- midas007 13y ago
  Exactly. But because of the difficulty, time and capital requirements, this is something that can't be left to the market economics. It will be too late by the time we need them because of the years it takes to develop a single new drug. This is a "going to the moon" type thing that needs to happen if we intend to survive. Because that's what's at stake.
  - alexeisadeski3 13y ago
    >But because of the difficulty, time and capital requirements, this is something that can't be left to the market economics. It will be too late by the time we need them because of the years it takes to develop a single new drug. Isn't this exactly what people used to say about the food supply?
    - midas007 13y ago
      Nope. It is what it is: capital-intensive research that is hard and it takes a long time to come up with a molecule that will stop an infection without killing or disabling the patient. That can't be done last minute like in the movies. FYI: One of the last-ditch antibiotics (I forget the name) has a side-effect of permanently damaging hearing. I have to basically yell at 95 yo grandmother for her to hear me. :)
  - refurb 13y ago
    Two comments: (1) You say it can't be left up to market economics, but two of the big hurdles to new antibiotic development are government regulations: (I) In the past the FDA was not very responsive to the resistance problem, if you had a new drug, you went through a normal review; luckily they have changed their approach recently (II) The way that Medicare and Medicaid pays for antibiotics doesn't encourage investment in novel agents (2) I have to push back on the "going to the moon" type thing. This is more like we've already been to the moon and we need to go back and do something different. Drug companies know how to develop new antibiotics (not to say it's easy, but they have ideas) and they know how to get them approved. There are new discoveries all the time. We just need to create an ecosystem that encourages further investment.
    - midas007 13y ago
      Edge cases. The big picture is that it's not happening fast enough, which is why the government will need to step in and will need to assume a leadership role to push hard on this.
      - refurb 13y ago
        That's not going to happen. The gov't will change the regulatory and reimbursement environment but the heavy lifting will be done by academic and pharmaceutical researchers.
DanBC 13y ago
People are already dying from simple infections - about 25,000 people per year die in europe from anti-biotic resistant infection. > The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control estimates that antimicrobial resistance (AMR) results each year in 25 000 deaths and related costs of over €1.5 billion in healthcare expenses and productivity losses. http://ec.europa.eu/health/antimicrobial_resistance/policy/index_en.htm http://ec.europa.eu/health/antimicrobial_resistance/policy/i...

by kayoone 13y ago

refurb 13y ago

Does this basically mean a lot more people will die from simple infections starting 1-2 years from now ? No, the problem is not that severe right now. In fact, some of the antibiotic resistant infections have decreased over the last few years. This is something we need to worry about 5-10+ years from now. It is inevitable that bacteria will become resistant to current antibiotics. The only way to keep ahead of them is to create new antibiotics.

midas007 13y ago
Exactly. But because of the difficulty, time and capital requirements, this is something that can't be left to the market economics. It will be too late by the time we need them because of the years it takes to develop a single new drug. This is a "going to the moon" type thing that needs to happen if we intend to survive. Because that's what's at stake.
- alexeisadeski3 13y ago
  >But because of the difficulty, time and capital requirements, this is something that can't be left to the market economics. It will be too late by the time we need them because of the years it takes to develop a single new drug. Isn't this exactly what people used to say about the food supply?
  - midas007 13y ago
    Nope. It is what it is: capital-intensive research that is hard and it takes a long time to come up with a molecule that will stop an infection without killing or disabling the patient. That can't be done last minute like in the movies. FYI: One of the last-ditch antibiotics (I forget the name) has a side-effect of permanently damaging hearing. I have to basically yell at 95 yo grandmother for her to hear me. :)
- refurb 13y ago
  Two comments: (1) You say it can't be left up to market economics, but two of the big hurdles to new antibiotic development are government regulations: (I) In the past the FDA was not very responsive to the resistance problem, if you had a new drug, you went through a normal review; luckily they have changed their approach recently (II) The way that Medicare and Medicaid pays for antibiotics doesn't encourage investment in novel agents (2) I have to push back on the "going to the moon" type thing. This is more like we've already been to the moon and we need to go back and do something different. Drug companies know how to develop new antibiotics (not to say it's easy, but they have ideas) and they know how to get them approved. There are new discoveries all the time. We just need to create an ecosystem that encourages further investment.
  - midas007 13y ago
    Edge cases. The big picture is that it's not happening fast enough, which is why the government will need to step in and will need to assume a leadership role to push hard on this.
    - refurb 13y ago
      That's not going to happen. The gov't will change the regulatory and reimbursement environment but the heavy lifting will be done by academic and pharmaceutical researchers.

DanBC 13y ago

People are already dying from simple infections - about 25,000 people per year die in europe from anti-biotic resistant infection. > The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control estimates that antimicrobial resistance (AMR) results each year in 25 000 deaths and related costs of over €1.5 billion in healthcare expenses and productivity losses. http://ec.europa.eu/health/antimicrobial_resistance/policy/index_en.htm http://ec.europa.eu/health/antimicrobial_resistance/policy/i...