9 ms·

Why specifically? History is long, think of Einstein, the person that invented the penicillin, vaccines, the transistor.... Search engines existed before Page,

Why specifically? History is long, think of Einstein, the person that invented the penicillin, vaccines, the transistor.... Search engines existed before Page, granted not as good but they existed. Google rode the internet explosion, whereas Jobs and (drumroll...) Gates brought a computer in every home. What he will be remembered is for tainting the Google brand. It was golden, now in many circles they see them as biased, full of ads https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7600532 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7600532 , deceiving consumers and a behemoth deserving to be taken down. Downhill has started

simplemath 12y ago
Honestly, I think widespread automated cars will be enough (And I am going to go out on a limb and say that Google technology will be in a huge number of automobiles 25 years from today), but if G has its way, and GFiber transforms ISP/Content delivery, their energy initiatives with windblimp turbines, deep machine learning for medicine, actual robotic assistants, G Books... The list goes on and on. Search is just the cash engine for the truly transformative tech. There has rarely been an industrial force with the ambition Page gives to Google. If they succeed in even half measures on some of these initiatives, it will be transformative.
- whoismua 12y ago
  And I am going to go out on a limb... Everything you said is in early stages or very limited markets. Sure Google has bought a lot of things and rushes to do press releases but what can be bought in the store right now? GFiber in a few cities? That's all. Search is just the cash engine for the truly transformative tech. Got any numbers on ho much Google spent on "transformative tech"? It looks peanuts to me, everything they spend real money and resources on seems to be linked to getting users click those ads.
  - simplemath 12y ago
    Edit: Do you seriously think that GFiber isn't going to be a major player nationally? Or that automated cars will never see market? On the second part I think we're a lot closer than you might imagine: http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/04/09/autonomous_vehicle_regulations_washington_d_c_s_dmv_prepares_for_self_driving.html http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/04/09/autonomou... As for R&D spending: http://ycharts.com/companies/GOOG/r_and_d_expense http://ycharts.com/companies/GOOG/r_and_d_expense Over 2.1b quarterly. Not exactly peanuts.
    - whoismua 12y ago
      Fiber, NO! Google will discontinue it soon, they just want to force AT&t and others to offer higher speeds. It cost a fortune and even if they get their money back, it messes up their margins. Everyone and their mom has a self-driving car prototype. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous_car#2010s https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous_car#2010s I guess Microsoft is "beating" Google with $2.74 Billion a year. http://ycharts.com/companies/MSFT/r_and_d_expense http://ycharts.com/companies/MSFT/r_and_d_expense I think that R&D is too wide of an entry, a breakdown would be useful.
      - hershel 12y ago
        self driving cars will probably be a "winner takes most" market. Google has a chance.
        whoismua 12y ago
        Interesting, we'll see. Maybe car manufacturers learned from Android, maybe it's beneficial to them. So far, I haven't read about anyone licensing Google's tech
      - simplemath 12y ago
        https://fiber.google.com/newcities/ https://fiber.google.com/newcities/ I've seen nothing to suggest that Google is only doing this to force AT&T's hand - and even if that IS the case, they are the entity responsible for catalyzing FTTH on a national scale.Edit: Also - why would G aquire massive amounts of dark fiber backbone starting way back in 05 if they just wanted to astroturf AT&T into doing the dirty work? Unless its just all just long con to meter the other isps on backbone traffic. Doubtful. Oh, so MSFT is "beating" GOOG in R&D - MSFT's research isnt prototyping autonomous cars or actually planning space elevators, or acquiring Boston Dynamics. It's hardly"peanuts" by any definition. Yes, there are lots of companies now rushing for a driverless car, but G is recognized as by far the industry leader and will likely license its technology to Toyota starting in 2016.Protype Prius's and Lexus RX SUVs have been logging hundreds of thousands of miles the past couple of years. They will beat GM to market most likely. Others will follow with licensing. Since I cant reply to you below - You said G was investing "peanuts" in R&D. This is demonstrably false. Anyhow, you can brandhate on them all you want, but they are pushing the envelope in ways that few other companies in industrial history ever have. I see no reason to continue this conversation.
Aloha 12y ago
I'd argue he'll be viewed as a Henry Ford like figure - Important, but flawed.
- hershel 12y ago
  Why flawed?
drblast 12y ago
Oh stop being so cynical. I'd bet money that Larry Page will become at least as widespread a household name as William Durant or Charles Flint.

simplemath 12y ago

Honestly, I think widespread automated cars will be enough (And I am going to go out on a limb and say that Google technology will be in a huge number of automobiles 25 years from today), but if G has its way, and GFiber transforms ISP/Content delivery, their energy initiatives with windblimp turbines, deep machine learning for medicine, actual robotic assistants, G Books... The list goes on and on. Search is just the cash engine for the truly transformative tech. There has rarely been an industrial force with the ambition Page gives to Google. If they succeed in even half measures on some of these initiatives, it will be transformative.

whoismua 12y ago
And I am going to go out on a limb... Everything you said is in early stages or very limited markets. Sure Google has bought a lot of things and rushes to do press releases but what can be bought in the store right now? GFiber in a few cities? That's all. Search is just the cash engine for the truly transformative tech. Got any numbers on ho much Google spent on "transformative tech"? It looks peanuts to me, everything they spend real money and resources on seems to be linked to getting users click those ads.
- simplemath 12y ago
  Edit: Do you seriously think that GFiber isn't going to be a major player nationally? Or that automated cars will never see market? On the second part I think we're a lot closer than you might imagine: http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/04/09/autonomous_vehicle_regulations_washington_d_c_s_dmv_prepares_for_self_driving.html http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/04/09/autonomou... As for R&D spending: http://ycharts.com/companies/GOOG/r_and_d_expense http://ycharts.com/companies/GOOG/r_and_d_expense Over 2.1b quarterly. Not exactly peanuts.
  - whoismua 12y ago
    Fiber, NO! Google will discontinue it soon, they just want to force AT&t and others to offer higher speeds. It cost a fortune and even if they get their money back, it messes up their margins. Everyone and their mom has a self-driving car prototype. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous_car#2010s https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous_car#2010s I guess Microsoft is "beating" Google with $2.74 Billion a year. http://ycharts.com/companies/MSFT/r_and_d_expense http://ycharts.com/companies/MSFT/r_and_d_expense I think that R&D is too wide of an entry, a breakdown would be useful.
    - hershel 12y ago
      self driving cars will probably be a "winner takes most" market. Google has a chance.
      - whoismua 12y ago
        Interesting, we'll see. Maybe car manufacturers learned from Android, maybe it's beneficial to them. So far, I haven't read about anyone licensing Google's tech
    - simplemath 12y ago
      https://fiber.google.com/newcities/ https://fiber.google.com/newcities/ I've seen nothing to suggest that Google is only doing this to force AT&T's hand - and even if that IS the case, they are the entity responsible for catalyzing FTTH on a national scale.Edit: Also - why would G aquire massive amounts of dark fiber backbone starting way back in 05 if they just wanted to astroturf AT&T into doing the dirty work? Unless its just all just long con to meter the other isps on backbone traffic. Doubtful. Oh, so MSFT is "beating" GOOG in R&D - MSFT's research isnt prototyping autonomous cars or actually planning space elevators, or acquiring Boston Dynamics. It's hardly"peanuts" by any definition. Yes, there are lots of companies now rushing for a driverless car, but G is recognized as by far the industry leader and will likely license its technology to Toyota starting in 2016.Protype Prius's and Lexus RX SUVs have been logging hundreds of thousands of miles the past couple of years. They will beat GM to market most likely. Others will follow with licensing. Since I cant reply to you below - You said G was investing "peanuts" in R&D. This is demonstrably false. Anyhow, you can brandhate on them all you want, but they are pushing the envelope in ways that few other companies in industrial history ever have. I see no reason to continue this conversation.

Aloha 12y ago

I'd argue he'll be viewed as a Henry Ford like figure - Important, but flawed.

hershel 12y ago
Why flawed?

drblast 12y ago

Oh stop being so cynical. I'd bet money that Larry Page will become at least as widespread a household name as William Durant or Charles Flint.