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I fully imagine the descent will even more rapid than the rise. When people congregate; advertisers follow seeking the staggering ROI of the early marketers on

by ZenPro 12y ago

I fully imagine the descent will even more rapid than the rise. When people congregate; advertisers follow seeking the staggering ROI of the early marketers on the platform. The platform, under shareholder pressure, will accept as many ads as it can until the platform is so saturated the customers leave and the ad ROI plummets. Advertisers are normally last to arrive at the party and also late to leave... I recently saw a photo that demonstrated Facebook has an 8/1 content ratio. For every 1 meaningful piece of content a user is subjected to 8 ads including sidebar + newsfeed. If you include the horizontal scrolling for mobile adverts it rises to 13/1. I think this party just hit it's peak. I deleted my FB a month ago, have not really missed it and a few of my friends have followed. Anecdotal evidence admittedly but no one did it in the usual "I am out!". The deletions were more of a shrug. Personally I find that the most emphatic indictment; when people have just grown bored of your platform.

SDGT 12y ago
Every single week that I sit down and stare at my newrelic monitor, I think the exact same thing: "This is all going to collapse soon." After almost two years of staring at six figure weekly revenue values on the analytics and tracking applications I've built (I obviously am not making this much), I begin to question my inherent concerns on FB's long game.
- ZenPro 12y ago
  From a quantitative perspective I cannot fault them right now but from a qualitative perspective...something is rotten in Denmark. Facebook is not the platform we need, it's the one we deserve right now ;-)
dismal2 12y ago
The collapse will not come from this, it will come when all the companies (gaming mostly) stop making money and can no longer justify spending $10-15 per install. It will all tumble quickly, but not because FB over-saturated their ecosystem with ads.
- ZenPro 12y ago
  Just out of interest; if people do not leave due to saturation, why would gaming companies stop making money? [EDIT: First time I have been downvoted for asking a question. Must have been offensive haha]
  - dismal2 12y ago
    Because there are a lot of followers. Being a superstar model, only a few people are pulling in the big bucks. A lot of people are hoping to follow them. They are currently keeping up and spending a lot of marketing dollars is the only solid way of getting new users, but they will run out of money before they get their "hit". Then we will see a massive consolidation in the mobile gaming space and a subsequent collapse in the current mobile marketing boondoggle. [I got a downvote too, just for fun I guess :D]
    - ZenPro 12y ago
      Upvoted you. Just for the hell of it. :-)
s3r3nity 12y ago
>I recently saw a photo that demonstrated that Facebook has an 8/1 content ratio I've also seen similar polls that show that what people _think_ are ads on Facebook aren't really ads per se ... just content from pages they had liked. And in general this might not hold for everyone, due to the newsfeed algorithm -- if I'm more engaged with my friends' posts than pages' posts, I tend to see more of the former than the latter (which is what happens when I visit FB.)
stormbrew 12y ago
Doesn't really seem likely that shareholder pressure will make them do much of anything at all when only one shareholder (whose last name starts with Z and rhymes with iceberg) actually counts.

by ZenPro 12y ago

SDGT 12y ago

Every single week that I sit down and stare at my newrelic monitor, I think the exact same thing: "This is all going to collapse soon." After almost two years of staring at six figure weekly revenue values on the analytics and tracking applications I've built (I obviously am not making this much), I begin to question my inherent concerns on FB's long game.

ZenPro 12y ago
From a quantitative perspective I cannot fault them right now but from a qualitative perspective...something is rotten in Denmark. Facebook is not the platform we need, it's the one we deserve right now ;-)

dismal2 12y ago

The collapse will not come from this, it will come when all the companies (gaming mostly) stop making money and can no longer justify spending $10-15 per install. It will all tumble quickly, but not because FB over-saturated their ecosystem with ads.

ZenPro 12y ago
Just out of interest; if people do not leave due to saturation, why would gaming companies stop making money? [EDIT: First time I have been downvoted for asking a question. Must have been offensive haha]
- dismal2 12y ago
  Because there are a lot of followers. Being a superstar model, only a few people are pulling in the big bucks. A lot of people are hoping to follow them. They are currently keeping up and spending a lot of marketing dollars is the only solid way of getting new users, but they will run out of money before they get their "hit". Then we will see a massive consolidation in the mobile gaming space and a subsequent collapse in the current mobile marketing boondoggle. [I got a downvote too, just for fun I guess :D]
  - ZenPro 12y ago
    Upvoted you. Just for the hell of it. :-)

s3r3nity 12y ago

>I recently saw a photo that demonstrated that Facebook has an 8/1 content ratio I've also seen similar polls that show that what people _think_ are ads on Facebook aren't really ads per se ... just content from pages they had liked. And in general this might not hold for everyone, due to the newsfeed algorithm -- if I'm more engaged with my friends' posts than pages' posts, I tend to see more of the former than the latter (which is what happens when I visit FB.)

stormbrew 12y ago

Doesn't really seem likely that shareholder pressure will make them do much of anything at all when only one shareholder (whose last name starts with Z and rhymes with iceberg) actually counts.