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Normal people will load their computers with malware when they attempt to pirate anything. Cable TV is idiot-proofed. Which is why the ad rates are still so exc

Normal people will load their computers with malware when they attempt to pirate anything. Cable TV is idiot-proofed. Which is why the ad rates are still so excellent on many channels. You're overestimating the technical competence of most people. The video quality is also higher for less effort on cable. What I think it will take for the displacement to happen is another large improvement in the internet connectivity to American homes and smartphones. Netflix exploded video rentals already, but cable is not quite the same business.

ctdonath 12y ago
Cable TV is idiot-proofed. That's where streaming/torrent/pirate solutions keep failing, and not understanding why. Nirvana nailed it: "here we are now, entertain us." The cheaper the price tag, the more technical know-how is involved. Popcorn Time came close, but still requires geek skillz. We're talking people who don't quite grasp "enter key" or "space bar" (much less "grep"), people who just want a limited linear list of what's available right now, who want to pick a channel generally filled with content they'll like, and who just want it to keep going without involvement. Netflix is great - when you know what you want and are inclined to find it. When they finally get a consistent flow of new content, and set up "channels" inclined toward specialization with a good mix of shows, with some live content thrown in, then cable TV will have reason to panic. Drop-dead idiot-proof simple. No wonder it took Steve Jobs to "crack" video, and we still don't know what he figured out (akin to "I found a marvelous proof, but this margin is too small...").
- kmkemp 12y ago
  I don't disagree that pirating is not a great option to a normal user. I'm simply saying that the reason for the success of Netflix is because they've taken the torrenting model and translated it for ease of use and safety, but they still have a few more hurdles before they can provide all of the features that keep people subscribing to cable TV.
- rartichoke 12y ago
  Are you a Netflix subscriber? Their interface is pretty good. It's about as good as you can ask for given the technology we have and the selection that Netflix has. Things are broken up by genre or new releases just like they used to be in video stores because it's pretty intuitive way to browse movies. "I feel like watching something funny, show me all comedies". Netflix also takes it 1 step further and tries to sort it by relevance based on previous watches. Their interface for DVD players is quite good too. The search is smart and it only takes seconds to go from the DVD player being off to watching a stream from Netflix. I rarely load up Netflix knowing exactly what I want to watch. I have ideas based on genre what I want and Netflix lets me browse reasonably. I've been a sub for almost as long as they've been around and I still find good stuff. The only thing that lacks is newer releases on stream but you can blame the media providers for that. My cable provider sometimes offers free access for a month to their on demand/pay per month movie service and it's a joke. Things are listed alphabetically with 90 pages to go through or it's by genre but you're stuck going through 28 pages of alphabetical results where you see nothing but the movie title and a 1 sentence plot. It's an awful user experience.
  - ctdonath 12y ago
    You still need to think about what you want to watch, and deliberately make it happen. A very large market segment wants no more than a half-dozen choices, pick one, and let it run indefinitely. For the same reason, the 90 page channel listing, dominated by "your not subscribed to this but we're going to show it to you anyway in hopes you might upgrade to include it" and "here's 37 duplicate channels all showing the same movie at slightly offset timeslots", has got to be driving people away - many staying only because there isn't a brain-dead-easy option hearkening to the days of 4 channels.
    - hagbardgroup 12y ago
      This is a great point. The 8 billion channel situation with an unusable guide channel seems like it was put together and maintained by a bunch of cokeheads with no sense of a sane user experience.
    - rartichoke 12y ago
- hagbardgroup 12y ago
  who just want it to keep going without involvement. Binge-watching happens because Netflix autoplays the next episode each time. They could take it one further by making more content decisions for the user, going beyond proffering recommendations, which still require user action.

ctdonath 12y ago

Cable TV is idiot-proofed. That's where streaming/torrent/pirate solutions keep failing, and not understanding why. Nirvana nailed it: "here we are now, entertain us." The cheaper the price tag, the more technical know-how is involved. Popcorn Time came close, but still requires geek skillz. We're talking people who don't quite grasp "enter key" or "space bar" (much less "grep"), people who just want a limited linear list of what's available right now, who want to pick a channel generally filled with content they'll like, and who just want it to keep going without involvement. Netflix is great - when you know what you want and are inclined to find it. When they finally get a consistent flow of new content, and set up "channels" inclined toward specialization with a good mix of shows, with some live content thrown in, then cable TV will have reason to panic. Drop-dead idiot-proof simple. No wonder it took Steve Jobs to "crack" video, and we still don't know what he figured out (akin to "I found a marvelous proof, but this margin is too small...").

kmkemp 12y ago
I don't disagree that pirating is not a great option to a normal user. I'm simply saying that the reason for the success of Netflix is because they've taken the torrenting model and translated it for ease of use and safety, but they still have a few more hurdles before they can provide all of the features that keep people subscribing to cable TV.
rartichoke 12y ago
Are you a Netflix subscriber? Their interface is pretty good. It's about as good as you can ask for given the technology we have and the selection that Netflix has. Things are broken up by genre or new releases just like they used to be in video stores because it's pretty intuitive way to browse movies. "I feel like watching something funny, show me all comedies". Netflix also takes it 1 step further and tries to sort it by relevance based on previous watches. Their interface for DVD players is quite good too. The search is smart and it only takes seconds to go from the DVD player being off to watching a stream from Netflix. I rarely load up Netflix knowing exactly what I want to watch. I have ideas based on genre what I want and Netflix lets me browse reasonably. I've been a sub for almost as long as they've been around and I still find good stuff. The only thing that lacks is newer releases on stream but you can blame the media providers for that. My cable provider sometimes offers free access for a month to their on demand/pay per month movie service and it's a joke. Things are listed alphabetically with 90 pages to go through or it's by genre but you're stuck going through 28 pages of alphabetical results where you see nothing but the movie title and a 1 sentence plot. It's an awful user experience.
- ctdonath 12y ago
  You still need to think about what you want to watch, and deliberately make it happen. A very large market segment wants no more than a half-dozen choices, pick one, and let it run indefinitely. For the same reason, the 90 page channel listing, dominated by "your not subscribed to this but we're going to show it to you anyway in hopes you might upgrade to include it" and "here's 37 duplicate channels all showing the same movie at slightly offset timeslots", has got to be driving people away - many staying only because there isn't a brain-dead-easy option hearkening to the days of 4 channels.
  - hagbardgroup 12y ago
    This is a great point. The 8 billion channel situation with an unusable guide channel seems like it was put together and maintained by a bunch of cokeheads with no sense of a sane user experience.
  - rartichoke 12y ago
hagbardgroup 12y ago
who just want it to keep going without involvement. Binge-watching happens because Netflix autoplays the next episode each time. They could take it one further by making more content decisions for the user, going beyond proffering recommendations, which still require user action.