You missed two key facts: 1. They can't recover all the pennies, so the recovery estimate takes that into account. 2. The Mint already made the pennies, there's

You missed two key facts: 1. They can't recover all the pennies, so the recovery estimate takes that into account. 2. The Mint already made the pennies, there's no need to buy them, just collect during the usual distributions to banks, and process them after.