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There's a lot of difficulty in evaluating stuff like this, and I feel like we inevitably trip over biases that go in both directions. On one hand, it's very eas
by truantbuick 12y ago
There's a lot of difficulty in evaluating stuff like this, and I feel like we inevitably trip over biases that go in both directions. On one hand, it's very easy in hindsight to ridicule what didn't come true or what seems like an outdated 1960s infatuation. However, it's also easy to pick through his predictions and pick through the modern day and apparently find a match.
Ultimately, I give some credit that he wasn't completely wrong (which I suspect is a lot harder than it seems!), but I don't think these predictions were particularly visionary -- just intelligently made given the information of his own time, which is all we can really expect.
He reasonably charts the technology of his own time to today. Some of it turns out alright, some of it not, and some in between.