Luck is code for "variables I don't see." The problem with defining a luck/skill separation is that it's subjective which of those factors should be a person's

Luck is code for "variables I don't see." The problem with defining a luck/skill separation is that it's subjective which of those factors should be a person's responsibility, and which are impossible to anticipate. So we'll never resolve that one. It's a fairly subjective call. They're two sides of the same coin. It's a "skill" variable if managing that feature is part of the job, and "luck" if not so (perhaps that feature is unmanageable.) I take a different and much more negative approach. Once a company or ecosystem (such as VC-funded technology, increasingly shifted toward marketing-driven light tech) ceases to add value, it reaches a state in which neither luck nor skill is the main variable, but pre-existing social class and status. Indeed, one might argue that the appearance that it's either luck or skill is an intentional deception. Take college admissions. There's some merit (it's non-trivial to crack 1500+/1600 and get good grades in high school) in the equation, but there's a huge extracurricular component (cough racism, classism cough) that is impossible (for a middle-class parent or high school student) to predict or navigate. It looks "random" to those people. That's how it's supposed to look. Some cluelessly conclude, "It wasn't in the cards." Others, equally cluelessly (and more pathetically) conclude, "I guess Johnny isn't cut out to be a leader" (like anyone can fucking tell at 17). It's not luck or skill at all. It's deeply classist which extracurriculars are valued and which are not, and it's made to look random to one set of people, and skill-driven to another, because the reality is socially unacceptable. The same applies to Silicon Valley. It has ceased generating real value. It's a Disneyfied farce of entrepreneurship designed to make rich twerps like Evan Spiegel and Lucas Duplan appear to have earned it. Some people believe that this is based on superior skill. Others are misled into believing it's luck. It's just random "serendipity" that some people get and some people don't. Not so. It's corruption. It looks like something else, because that's the ruse. The luck/serendipity aspect is put there to muddy the water so people can't see what is really going on.