3 ms·

Many variables share this exact graph shape over the 1960-2000 period, without having anything to do with crime. It's not a particularly characteristic shape. T

by spcoll 12y ago

Many variables share this exact graph shape over the 1960-2000 period, without having anything to do with crime. It's not a particularly characteristic shape. This seems to be a textbook example of "correlation does not imply causation". If there was causation (due to the neurological effects of long-term lead exposure during childhood years), then you would observe delayed correlation (at a 20 year scale), not simultaneous correlation.

Pfhreak 12y ago
Not that I disagree with you, but the graph in the article is adjusted 23 years between the two lines.
- spcoll 12y ago
  Indeed, that had escaped me. It makes the case stronger then.
  - stormbrew 12y ago
    The other part that makes it stronger than simple line-fitting is the idea that it tracks similarily, but from different starting points, in jurisdictions where the use of lead started declining at different points. Especially when the jurisdictions pursued similar crime policy at around the same time (ie. the UK and the US).
deleted 12y ago
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lclarkmichalek 12y ago
Correlation does not imply causation, however correlation can be used to support a theory of causation. The article does address this point: "There is a substantial causal relationship," she says. "I can see it in the state-to-state variations. States that experienced particularly early or particularly sharp declines in lead experienced particularly early or particularly sharp declines in violent crime 20 years later." Without reading the paper, I will not venture any opinion on the hypothesis/research/etc itself. I do however thing it may take more than 5 words to completely dismiss the theory.
- XorNot 12y ago
  The causative mechanism is the body of research done on the brains of criminals. We usually find reduced function or actual damage in the frontal cortex, and other regions associated with empathy and emotional processing. The other group of people we find this in is those suffering from childhood lead exposure, and we know that the regions of the brain most affected are those which occur from lead exposure. While not going so far as to imply everyone with this pattern becomes a criminal, it certainly increases the statistical likelihood that they are, and studies on people with extreme issues - i.e. psychopaths - tend to show that's its a pattern of life experiences which determine whether you learn to function in society, or go another path. Notable is the neuroscientist who was studying psychopaths and discovered he has the same sort of brain structure as one - but, is a scientist, married and has children. Since we can't really control an individuals life experiences through policy, but they roughly sort out statistically based on socioeconomic status, it seems pretty clear that exposure to brain development inhibiting neurotoxins is going to give you a higher then expected fraction of criminally-inclined young adults.

by spcoll 12y ago

Pfhreak 12y ago

Not that I disagree with you, but the graph in the article is adjusted 23 years between the two lines.

spcoll 12y ago
Indeed, that had escaped me. It makes the case stronger then.
- stormbrew 12y ago
  The other part that makes it stronger than simple line-fitting is the idea that it tracks similarily, but from different starting points, in jurisdictions where the use of lead started declining at different points. Especially when the jurisdictions pursued similar crime policy at around the same time (ie. the UK and the US).

deleted 12y ago

[deleted]

lclarkmichalek 12y ago

Correlation does not imply causation, however correlation can be used to support a theory of causation. The article does address this point: "There is a substantial causal relationship," she says. "I can see it in the state-to-state variations. States that experienced particularly early or particularly sharp declines in lead experienced particularly early or particularly sharp declines in violent crime 20 years later." Without reading the paper, I will not venture any opinion on the hypothesis/research/etc itself. I do however thing it may take more than 5 words to completely dismiss the theory.

XorNot 12y ago
The causative mechanism is the body of research done on the brains of criminals. We usually find reduced function or actual damage in the frontal cortex, and other regions associated with empathy and emotional processing. The other group of people we find this in is those suffering from childhood lead exposure, and we know that the regions of the brain most affected are those which occur from lead exposure. While not going so far as to imply everyone with this pattern becomes a criminal, it certainly increases the statistical likelihood that they are, and studies on people with extreme issues - i.e. psychopaths - tend to show that's its a pattern of life experiences which determine whether you learn to function in society, or go another path. Notable is the neuroscientist who was studying psychopaths and discovered he has the same sort of brain structure as one - but, is a scientist, married and has children. Since we can't really control an individuals life experiences through policy, but they roughly sort out statistically based on socioeconomic status, it seems pretty clear that exposure to brain development inhibiting neurotoxins is going to give you a higher then expected fraction of criminally-inclined young adults.