4 ms·

It is generally hard to take James Fallows' opinions seriously. He is a great writer but always seems to be of the wrong side of history. For example back in th

by spikels 13y ago

It is generally hard to take James Fallows' opinions seriously. He is a great writer but always seems to be of the wrong side of history. For example back in the late 1980s he led the "The Japanese are Taking Over the World" scare just before Japan went into a multi-decade decline[1]. The fact that he is now worried about China puts my mind at ease. He is much more credible when he simply quotes Stephen Chu. That much better batteries would change the world is not controversial. Actually making it happen is the tricky bit. [1] https://www.theatlantic.com/past/docs/issues/89may/fallows.htm https://www.theatlantic.com/past/docs/issues/89may/fallows.h...

dctoedt 13y ago
> It is generally hard to take James Fallows' opinions seriously. To me it's exactly the opposite. Fallows isn't infallible, but his opinions are always measured and carefully-considered. For probably 30 years now I've been interested in what he's had to say about any variety of issues (except his interest in beer, which strikes me as perhaps an affectation calculated to present an Everyman image). For example, Fallows moved to Japan in the 1980s, living and working there for several years if memory serves. His view on Japan's economic future was extremely widely held back then; many, many smart people have scratched their heads since then, wondering why things didn't go as predicted. (Who'd have thought it: History not unfolding as predicted; now there's something new, eh?) As to Fallows's views on China, he has been a voice of moderation --- again in part because he moved there to live and work for a few years.
- brc 13y ago
  Mutant Keynesian policy idiocy coupled with demographic decline is why things didn't go as predicted.
  - dctoedt 13y ago
    Hindsight is always so much easier to get right than foresight.
matthewmcg 13y ago
These are not Fallows' opinions. All of these statements are attributed to others and presented "as told to James Fallows."

by spikels 13y ago

dctoedt 13y ago

> It is generally hard to take James Fallows' opinions seriously. To me it's exactly the opposite. Fallows isn't infallible, but his opinions are always measured and carefully-considered. For probably 30 years now I've been interested in what he's had to say about any variety of issues (except his interest in beer, which strikes me as perhaps an affectation calculated to present an Everyman image). For example, Fallows moved to Japan in the 1980s, living and working there for several years if memory serves. His view on Japan's economic future was extremely widely held back then; many, many smart people have scratched their heads since then, wondering why things didn't go as predicted. (Who'd have thought it: History not unfolding as predicted; now there's something new, eh?) As to Fallows's views on China, he has been a voice of moderation --- again in part because he moved there to live and work for a few years.

brc 13y ago
Mutant Keynesian policy idiocy coupled with demographic decline is why things didn't go as predicted.
- dctoedt 13y ago
  Hindsight is always so much easier to get right than foresight.

matthewmcg 13y ago

These are not Fallows' opinions. All of these statements are attributed to others and presented "as told to James Fallows."