6 ms·

After many people mentioning they actually like Windows Phone, I can't help but think, will 2014 be the year of the Windows Phone?

sz4kerto 13y ago
No, it won't. I personally like WP a lot, but this is (again) a winner-takes-it-all market. I think most people would say they like OSX (even if they have never actually used it, but it's fashionable to like OSX anyway), still, OSX market share has been stagnating forever. What Microsoft can do with a good mobile OS is to stay in the game until the next big thing (as Apple stayed in the game with Mac until the iPod and the iPhone became a big hit). And again: I think WP is a great OS.
- jawngee 13y ago
  > still, OSX market share has been stagnating forever. 28.5% growth last holiday season is not stagnating.
  - jusben1369 13y ago
    You're confusing overall growth and market share. To keep things really simple if the overall number of smartphone users goes from 1 million to 1.5 million that's 50% growth of the market. If my particular flavor of OS grows 30% during that same year I'm actually losing market share even though I am crowing from the rooftop "Hey we grew 30% last year!" Here OP is saying just because there's a lot of love for Windows what it really needs to do to be the year of the Windows phone is take share from iOS and/or Android.
    - symfoniq 13y ago
      Nevertheless, the statement that OS X's market share is stagnating is not true: http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/03/15/windows_desktop_and_laptop_market_share_dips_below_90_per_cent/ http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/03/15/windows_desktop_and_...
- bratsche 13y ago
  > I personally like WP a lot, but this is (again) a winner-takes-it-all market. But iPhone had seemingly won initially, and Android ate up ground from it even back when Android was complete shit. I think there's less lock-in for average users than there was with PCs, so it seems like what is required to gain market share is to give bigger cuts of the sales to the carriers who are selling the phones. How long has it been since you went into an AT&T store and they tried to sell you an iPhone? They push Androids like it's crack they need to get rid of before the cops catch them. Because they make more money there.
  - quanticle 13y ago
    >But the iPhone had seemingly won initially, and Android ate up ground from it even back when Android was complete shit. Android gained its market share by being free. That's a strategy that only works once. Yes, Windows Phone is now free, but Android's market share lead (and corresponding advantage in network effects) is nigh insurmountable at this point. I've said it before and I'll say it again: Android : smartphones :: Windows : PCs. In both markets, Apple pursued a "high-end" integrated hardware/software strategy with a focus on premium devices and premium user experience. This opened up space for a secondary player to offer an inferior good - one that consumers could choose if they wanted similar capabilities and were willing to accept a certain level of degradation in fit and finish. The problem is that there's only room for one such player. In the PC space, that player is Windows. In the smartphone space, that player is Android. Windows Phone is like the BeOS of smartphone operating systems. It does a lot of interesting things, and it's better than Android in many ways, but network effects among software developers ensure that it'll never catch on. It's sad, but such is the market.
    - bentcorner 13y ago
      Still, from the consumer side of things there's far less friction/lock-in. Switching between phone platforms brings pain only in app selection, most data (like pictures, calendars and email) is all online and doesn't need to be moved over[1]. The key here like you say are software developers. I think Microsoft is aware of this and their purchase of Xamarin is them taking steps to solve this problem. In the future you could see Microsoft showing developers how they could build their applications for all major smartphone OSs with their tools, allowing them to eat up ground in the app space. [1] Contrast this to PC vs Mac, where even switching from an old PC to a new PC can be a daunting task, and the risk of data-loss is high.
leaveyou 13y ago
After I got burned with the Samsung Omnia 7 fiasco (WP7 low features, no updates after 7.5, useless without Windows and Zune trash) I will not touch a Microsoft phone again, not even for 20$ !
madeofpalk 13y ago
Isnt 2014 supposed to be the year of Linux?
- jenscow 13y ago
  For phones? it already is. For the desktop? it's always "next year"
badman_ting 13y ago
Sure, why not. Desktop Linux too.

sz4kerto 13y ago

No, it won't. I personally like WP a lot, but this is (again) a winner-takes-it-all market. I think most people would say they like OSX (even if they have never actually used it, but it's fashionable to like OSX anyway), still, OSX market share has been stagnating forever. What Microsoft can do with a good mobile OS is to stay in the game until the next big thing (as Apple stayed in the game with Mac until the iPod and the iPhone became a big hit). And again: I think WP is a great OS.

jawngee 13y ago
> still, OSX market share has been stagnating forever. 28.5% growth last holiday season is not stagnating.
- jusben1369 13y ago
  You're confusing overall growth and market share. To keep things really simple if the overall number of smartphone users goes from 1 million to 1.5 million that's 50% growth of the market. If my particular flavor of OS grows 30% during that same year I'm actually losing market share even though I am crowing from the rooftop "Hey we grew 30% last year!" Here OP is saying just because there's a lot of love for Windows what it really needs to do to be the year of the Windows phone is take share from iOS and/or Android.
  - symfoniq 13y ago
    Nevertheless, the statement that OS X's market share is stagnating is not true: http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/03/15/windows_desktop_and_laptop_market_share_dips_below_90_per_cent/ http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/03/15/windows_desktop_and_...
bratsche 13y ago
> I personally like WP a lot, but this is (again) a winner-takes-it-all market. But iPhone had seemingly won initially, and Android ate up ground from it even back when Android was complete shit. I think there's less lock-in for average users than there was with PCs, so it seems like what is required to gain market share is to give bigger cuts of the sales to the carriers who are selling the phones. How long has it been since you went into an AT&T store and they tried to sell you an iPhone? They push Androids like it's crack they need to get rid of before the cops catch them. Because they make more money there.
- quanticle 13y ago
  >But the iPhone had seemingly won initially, and Android ate up ground from it even back when Android was complete shit. Android gained its market share by being free. That's a strategy that only works once. Yes, Windows Phone is now free, but Android's market share lead (and corresponding advantage in network effects) is nigh insurmountable at this point. I've said it before and I'll say it again: Android : smartphones :: Windows : PCs. In both markets, Apple pursued a "high-end" integrated hardware/software strategy with a focus on premium devices and premium user experience. This opened up space for a secondary player to offer an inferior good - one that consumers could choose if they wanted similar capabilities and were willing to accept a certain level of degradation in fit and finish. The problem is that there's only room for one such player. In the PC space, that player is Windows. In the smartphone space, that player is Android. Windows Phone is like the BeOS of smartphone operating systems. It does a lot of interesting things, and it's better than Android in many ways, but network effects among software developers ensure that it'll never catch on. It's sad, but such is the market.
  - bentcorner 13y ago
    Still, from the consumer side of things there's far less friction/lock-in. Switching between phone platforms brings pain only in app selection, most data (like pictures, calendars and email) is all online and doesn't need to be moved over[1]. The key here like you say are software developers. I think Microsoft is aware of this and their purchase of Xamarin is them taking steps to solve this problem. In the future you could see Microsoft showing developers how they could build their applications for all major smartphone OSs with their tools, allowing them to eat up ground in the app space. [1] Contrast this to PC vs Mac, where even switching from an old PC to a new PC can be a daunting task, and the risk of data-loss is high.

leaveyou 13y ago

After I got burned with the Samsung Omnia 7 fiasco (WP7 low features, no updates after 7.5, useless without Windows and Zune trash) I will not touch a Microsoft phone again, not even for 20$ !

madeofpalk 13y ago

Isnt 2014 supposed to be the year of Linux?

jenscow 13y ago
For phones? it already is. For the desktop? it's always "next year"

badman_ting 13y ago

Sure, why not. Desktop Linux too.