4 ms·

What's luck got to do with it? The math of gambling

18 points by badcarl 17y ago

jamesk2 17y ago
Your odds of hitting on Red or Black is not 50/50. It is 47.37%. The ball can land on green. If you don't get your money back, it's a loss. http://wizardofodds.com/roulette http://wizardofodds.com/roulette Most games at Casinos are stacked against you. They have very smart math and stats geeks who've figured all this out. Try counting by yourself with a 6 deck shoe. Or even a single deck is hard because they reshuffle after 2-3 hands. One interesting thing from the article. Picking unpopular combinations of numbers can offer less competition in large jackpots. i.e. adjacent numbers 23-24-25, etc... because people mistakenly believe that's less likey to happen than totally random numbers.
- charlesju 17y ago
  The odds of hitting red or black is 50/50, green doesn't factor into those odds. You're adding up the odds of red or black out of all possible outcomes, not just the outcome in a perfect world of just red or black.
  - bdittmer 17y ago
    You're slicing hairs here, was this really necessary?
    - charlesju 17y ago
      I'm defending the context of the article.
- halo 17y ago
  If you're being pedantic, since New Scientist is a British publication, European roulette would be played which only has a single zero on the wheel, therefore making the odds of hitting Red or Black 18/37 or ~48.65%. In addition, some online casinos offer games with no house edge - Betfair, for example, allows you to play roulette without a zero. I'm unsure if this is simply a loss-leader or whether it turns a profit indirectly due to gambler's ruin and earnings through additional deposits.
gchpaco 17y ago
Oh gawd, not the Martingale again. (do not do this. The modern expression is "The market can stay irrational for longer than you can stay liquid") At least arbitrage across bookies is reasonably safe. And I like the "marriage problem" concept.
- deleted 17y ago
  [deleted]
calcnerd256 17y ago
What happens if someone tries to run two Martingale systems (of opposite colors) at the same time?
- roryokane 17y ago
  I think they would just break even until they couldn't afford their next bet after losing one color a lot. Whenever black would win, it would win at the expense of red, and vice versa.
- mynameishere 17y ago
  What happens if somebody shorts two inverse levereged ETFs at the same time? http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=DIG&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=dug http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=DIG&t=2y&l=off&z... [Warning: Doing the above features similar dangers as a Martingale system.]
briancooley 17y ago
Most casino table games have a betting cap, so you can't run martingale on them anyway.
jvdh 17y ago
This is a duplicate of: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=755833 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=755833

18 points by badcarl 17y ago

Your odds of hitting on Red or Black is not 50/50. It is 47.37%. The ball can land on green. If you don't get your money back, it's a loss. http://wizardofodds.com/roulette http://wizardofodds.com/roulette Most games at Casinos are stacked against you. They have very smart math and stats geeks who've figured all this out. Try counting by yourself with a 6 deck shoe. Or even a single deck is hard because they reshuffle after 2-3 hands. One interesting thing from the article. Picking unpopular combinations of numbers can offer less competition in large jackpots. i.e. adjacent numbers 23-24-25, etc... because people mistakenly believe that's less likey to happen than totally random numbers.

charlesju 17y ago
The odds of hitting red or black is 50/50, green doesn't factor into those odds. You're adding up the odds of red or black out of all possible outcomes, not just the outcome in a perfect world of just red or black.
- bdittmer 17y ago
  You're slicing hairs here, was this really necessary?
  - charlesju 17y ago
    I'm defending the context of the article.
halo 17y ago
If you're being pedantic, since New Scientist is a British publication, European roulette would be played which only has a single zero on the wheel, therefore making the odds of hitting Red or Black 18/37 or ~48.65%. In addition, some online casinos offer games with no house edge - Betfair, for example, allows you to play roulette without a zero. I'm unsure if this is simply a loss-leader or whether it turns a profit indirectly due to gambler's ruin and earnings through additional deposits.

gchpaco 17y ago

Oh gawd, not the Martingale again. (do not do this. The modern expression is "The market can stay irrational for longer than you can stay liquid") At least arbitrage across bookies is reasonably safe. And I like the "marriage problem" concept.

deleted 17y ago
[deleted]

calcnerd256 17y ago

What happens if someone tries to run two Martingale systems (of opposite colors) at the same time?

roryokane 17y ago
I think they would just break even until they couldn't afford their next bet after losing one color a lot. Whenever black would win, it would win at the expense of red, and vice versa.
mynameishere 17y ago
What happens if somebody shorts two inverse levereged ETFs at the same time? http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=DIG&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=dug http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=DIG&t=2y&l=off&z... [Warning: Doing the above features similar dangers as a Martingale system.]

briancooley 17y ago

Most casino table games have a betting cap, so you can't run martingale on them anyway.

jvdh 17y ago

This is a duplicate of: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=755833 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=755833