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There is no doubt in my mind that the 'clean tech' investment bubble is as popped as the dotcom bubble, albeit for different reasons, but with the same refrain.
by brc 13y ago
There is no doubt in my mind that the 'clean tech' investment bubble is as popped as the dotcom bubble, albeit for different reasons, but with the same refrain. Pets.com and better place will end up as poster children for speculative bubbles in which large amounts of money are thrown at business plans with little research and absolutely no product.
People seem to like comparing themslevs to Steve jobs, being on the worlds stage, releasing products to a stunned audience. But they just want to skip to that part and not go through the whole starting a company in the garage thing.
The comparisons between tesla and bp could not be more stark. One took investment carefully, consistently only enlarging scope when success was already seen with the team and the product. The other attempted to reinvent the world, seemingly with no real product and a vey vague, shifting plan.
Imagine how long that billion dollars could have lasted had it been invested sensibly. They might be a success in Israel now and accepting favorable offers from other car manufacturers and governments. Now it's just another cautionary tale in the long list of people who lost their shirts trying to sell electric cars.
- danso 13y agoI think the dressing-like-Steve-Jobs is a sure sign of failure. It evinces the belief that appearance and charisma is what drives people to build (and buy) a product. Well, yes, it's reportedly true that Jobs had that effect. But in his early stages, he also had Woz, someone as one-of-a-kind as he is, and in later years, attracted the kind of engineers and designers who could survive the Kool-Aid drinking. For someone to think that Jobs did it on pure gusto and dreams alone, and even worse, to assume such a thing is a formula that can be replicated and regurgitated...that's not a great sign of leadership. And also, if you really were a visionary who an idea that, in many ways, is even bigger than Apple...why the f* would you settle for being the "Steve Jobs of electric cars?" The pop-psychologist in me wants to believe that such a visionary would rather make his/her own distinctive stylistic mark.
- soneca 13y agoAlso, Steve Jobs would go to the stage when his new idea had become a complete product! He would go on stage to show it, not pitch it! He would spend a few years without telling no outsider what he and his team were up to, then when they proved for themselves that it works (including all the industrial capacity and logistics to deliver it in place), then he would use his charisma to sell it. He sold products, not ideas (or ideals).
- aswanson 13y agoI cant stop laughing at the Dressing-as-Steve antisignal. I wonder if there are any startups out there pitching vcs in black turtlenecks.
- brc 13y agoI think you're right. Whoever next builds a company with visionary products that change the world - well, they aren't going to look, talk or act like Steve Jobs. It's getting it all backwards to think that the personal traits of a successful person are what defines that success - instead of merely recognising the success is a megaphone that communicates the personal traits. If only it were as easy as donning a black turtleneck and saying 'oh, and one more thing'.
- 205guy 13y agoAfter reading this article, I can't help but think that Better Place is the Newton, or maybe the Palm of electric cars. Nowadays, we see smartphones and tablets in their near-final form (or at least one that's been stable for a few years), but we forget the many handheld computing devices that were tried before, some that had traction and others that didn't. Which leads to: as an investor or potential employee, how do you tell whether that hot startup is is a Hi5, a myspace, or a Facebook? Can you know whether your contribution will make a/the difference between the outcomes?