8 ms·

On the basis that it is the size of a (very large) watermelon. What's it made of? Copper and steel and aluminum. $1000 of materials and $1000 in labor. Here'

by pravda 13y ago

On the basis that it is the size of a (very large) watermelon. What's it made of? Copper and steel and aluminum. $1000 of materials and $1000 in labor. Here's a pic: http://insideevs.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Screen-Shot-2014-03-09-at-1.58.38-PM.png http://insideevs.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Screen-Shot-... Then of course there is the cost of the cooling jacket and the electronics. I can't estimate that readily.

jamesaguilar 13y ago
This manner of cost estimation is not convincing to me, for reasons that should be obvious to anyone. There are plenty of small things that cost a lot of money, because, perhaps, of the precision or techniques required to manufacture them or their components, or the dearness of the materials that compose the minority of the object. TL;DR: What is a sub-one ounce object made mostly of silicon that costs more than a thousand dollars. http://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E16819116938 http://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E16819116...
- btian 13y ago
  It doesn't cost $1000. What you're paying for is R&D. Just like a Windows 8 DVD doesn't cost hundred of dollars to make
  - jamesaguilar 13y ago
    The implicit claim being that Tesla does not factor in R&D when they charge consumers for replacements?
    - btian 13y ago
      No, just pointing out that processed silicon does not cost Intel anything close to $1000. Also I doubt R&D cost for an electric motor is high because the technology is mature.
- pravda 13y ago
  >TL;DR: What is a sub-one ounce object made mostly of silicon that costs more than a thousand dollars. (intel i7) In that case, you are paying for the IP, not the silicon. The Tesla motor is a simple design, no magnets, no brushes. I assume they are hand-built. Some, but not too much precision machining required. Think about how much precision goes into a 2TB hard drive that costs $100 retail.
  - jamesaguilar 13y ago
    I often come to the wrong conclusion when "just thinking" about it, especially in domains where I am not even a novice. Also, the fact that I don't find listings for 500hp brushless motors for <10k online calls into question the results of your thought experiment. I can see where you get your belief -- I wasn't questioning that it is a reasonable one to hold. But I am asking for evidence that compels me to a confidence level I'd actually bet on. Data will be required. Thought experiments are not sufficient. (Don't get me wrong, I'm not accusing you for failing to provide data. It may not be publicly available. And it is not your duty to give me this. But that is what I am asking for, and if you don't have it, you don't have what I want, your duty or no.)
    - ericd 13y ago
      You're making an assertion that runs counter to the common wisdom that electric cars will require less maintenance, so the burden of proof is on you. The fact that you can't find brushless motors online that retail for less than $10k is not convincing, because it's a new use case, a unique design, and they're not selling them outside of cars. You don't know what the pricing is. As far as materials, that amount of copper isn't going to help it get to $10k. EDIT: Oh sorry, I mistook you for the originator of this thread, jesusmichael. He asserted that, not you.
      - jamesaguilar 13y ago
        I never made that assertion. I'm only asking questions. "Common wisdom" does not create a burden of proof for detractors, especially if the common wisdom is never, that I can find, backed up with evidence. That is absurd. It would be like saying that the burden is on non religious people to prove that Jesus is not god because billions of people think he is.
rdl 13y ago
Given how vertically integrated Tesla is, this is the right approach. Include a factor for time on capital equipment (number which can be produced per year per machine, cost of machine, cheap cost of capital, wear on machines, depreciation over lifetime) and you'd probably be good (maybe $3k total for the part?) If it's a commodity item (like most electric motors, but maybe not the one in the Tesla), with a competitive market, you might be able to estimate cost by looking at open market pricing, but for something like SpaceX, that clearly doesn't work. Tesla is closer to SpaceX in thinking than it is to most car companies, especially startup car companies.

by pravda 13y ago

jamesaguilar 13y ago

This manner of cost estimation is not convincing to me, for reasons that should be obvious to anyone. There are plenty of small things that cost a lot of money, because, perhaps, of the precision or techniques required to manufacture them or their components, or the dearness of the materials that compose the minority of the object. TL;DR: What is a sub-one ounce object made mostly of silicon that costs more than a thousand dollars. http://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E16819116938 http://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E16819116...

btian 13y ago
It doesn't cost $1000. What you're paying for is R&D. Just like a Windows 8 DVD doesn't cost hundred of dollars to make
- jamesaguilar 13y ago
  The implicit claim being that Tesla does not factor in R&D when they charge consumers for replacements?
  - btian 13y ago
    No, just pointing out that processed silicon does not cost Intel anything close to $1000. Also I doubt R&D cost for an electric motor is high because the technology is mature.
pravda 13y ago
>TL;DR: What is a sub-one ounce object made mostly of silicon that costs more than a thousand dollars. (intel i7) In that case, you are paying for the IP, not the silicon. The Tesla motor is a simple design, no magnets, no brushes. I assume they are hand-built. Some, but not too much precision machining required. Think about how much precision goes into a 2TB hard drive that costs $100 retail.
- jamesaguilar 13y ago
  I often come to the wrong conclusion when "just thinking" about it, especially in domains where I am not even a novice. Also, the fact that I don't find listings for 500hp brushless motors for <10k online calls into question the results of your thought experiment. I can see where you get your belief -- I wasn't questioning that it is a reasonable one to hold. But I am asking for evidence that compels me to a confidence level I'd actually bet on. Data will be required. Thought experiments are not sufficient. (Don't get me wrong, I'm not accusing you for failing to provide data. It may not be publicly available. And it is not your duty to give me this. But that is what I am asking for, and if you don't have it, you don't have what I want, your duty or no.)
  - ericd 13y ago
    You're making an assertion that runs counter to the common wisdom that electric cars will require less maintenance, so the burden of proof is on you. The fact that you can't find brushless motors online that retail for less than $10k is not convincing, because it's a new use case, a unique design, and they're not selling them outside of cars. You don't know what the pricing is. As far as materials, that amount of copper isn't going to help it get to $10k. EDIT: Oh sorry, I mistook you for the originator of this thread, jesusmichael. He asserted that, not you.
    - jamesaguilar 13y ago
      I never made that assertion. I'm only asking questions. "Common wisdom" does not create a burden of proof for detractors, especially if the common wisdom is never, that I can find, backed up with evidence. That is absurd. It would be like saying that the burden is on non religious people to prove that Jesus is not god because billions of people think he is.

rdl 13y ago

Given how vertically integrated Tesla is, this is the right approach. Include a factor for time on capital equipment (number which can be produced per year per machine, cost of machine, cheap cost of capital, wear on machines, depreciation over lifetime) and you'd probably be good (maybe $3k total for the part?) If it's a commodity item (like most electric motors, but maybe not the one in the Tesla), with a competitive market, you might be able to estimate cost by looking at open market pricing, but for something like SpaceX, that clearly doesn't work. Tesla is closer to SpaceX in thinking than it is to most car companies, especially startup car companies.