4 ms·
"this argument seems based on the premise that there's a huge underclass of people who can't possibly be trained in a skill once robots take the manual labor aw
by natrius 17y ago
"this argument seems based on the premise that there's a huge underclass of people who can't possibly be trained in a skill once robots take the manual labor away"
Who is going to pay for that training? I don't see any way for people who are currently unskilled laborers to make it through the gap when their current work is no longer available without any assistance. Moreover, plenty of skilled labor will be automated in the future. Nursing, for instance, requires a significant amount of knowledge to do competently, but most of the tasks nurses (as well as family practitioners) do will probably be automated in the next 40 years. Accounting? Skilled profession, but it could probably be automated. Anything that doesn't require creativity seems capable of being automated to me, even without drastic, unforeseen, internet-like advancements in technology. How are all of these people going to be retrained? What will they be retrained in?
"The hardware will become cheap long before the software becomes capable enough to replace humans in most jobs, and the software will improve gradually. People will have time to adapt."
I don't think so. Most of the problems that need to be solved to replace various forms of human labor are fairly similar. When the necessary technology is developed, several industries will start to automate simultaneously. Tens of thousands of jobs will be permanently lost annually. Even at a more gradual rate, I doubt there will be enough work to absorb all of those people.
To recap:
1) What jobs will people switch to?
2) How will there be enough of them?
3) How will people afford retraining when plenty of people barely have enough money to save today?
4) How will they retrain fast enough? Most of the jobs that seem difficult to automate to me require a college education, which many people aren't currently prepared enough for.
I think things will end up being okay, but it will take massive government intervention.
- modeless 17y agoYour questions are about resource allocation, and the answer as usual is free markets. An argument about the efficacy of free markets vs. central planning would be offtopic, so let's just agree to disagree on this one.