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But all Google can really tell when someone searches on 'widget' is that the user wants to know more about widgets. Isn't Amazon's data, knowing who searches o

But all Google can really tell when someone searches on 'widget' is that the user wants to know more about widgets. Isn't Amazon's data, knowing who searches on 'widget', and then buys a widget, substantially more valuable?

patio11 17y ago
Amazon knows quite a bit about me: they know I bought a Canon camera in 2000, that I have a bookshelf full of fantasy books, 4 entire seasons of 24, and most everything Joss Whedon has ever made. They can reasonably extrapolate from my book purchases that I'm a trilingual Republican Catholic computer programmer. They know everywhere I've lived for a decade. Google knows a bit about me, too, but pretend they only see one search from this morning: [air fares Nagoya to Okinawa]. If you can tell me why Amazon's decade of data is more valuable than Google's single data point in predicting my purchasing behavior in the near term, you will make a few billion dollars.
- Retric 17y ago
  Google potentially has every search you have made, every email you sent and received, and every You Tube video you have watched, and every phone call you have made, most sites you have visited, and knows which adds you have already clicked on. Over months to years, heck they know which addresses you have gotten directions to. Finding ways to use that information is hard, but it's a lot wider than what is this search. Amazon might have a lot of information about some of their customers, but Google has an insane amount of information about some of their customers. Which is more useful across the total web is a several billion dollar question. But I don't think Amazon can scale advertising information into that level yet.
  - gdp 17y ago
    My search data is likely to be spread around huge numbers of IPs. I'm rarely logged into google. Plus they really have no way of knowing whether I "converted" once I leave the search results. I may open tabs for the top 10 results, but it doesn't mean that I like what I've found, or that I would want to be presented with that kind of information again. My amazon account, on the other hand, has been tied to me for at least 7 years, and likely has every search I've done, every product I've viewed, and everything I did up to and including eventually making a purchase. I've gotta say, based on my own experience as a reasonably typical internet user, Amazon probably have less data on me, but it's bound to be better-quality.
    - Retric 17y ago
      Google uses cookies so the IP issue is meaningless. They also track what advertizing people click on... However, I suspect you and I are not really the target market. I use Amazon and don't use Gmail but a large number of people spend a lot of time online looking at content hosted by Google, or including Google advertisements. PS: Amazon might know which books, and electronics I like, but Google knows which car I have and when I am looking to buy the next one.
      - gdp 17y ago
        By "spread across IPs", I meant "from different physical computers", rather than the sorts of dynamic IP behaviour from a single host that can, as you say, be overcome through the use of cookies for tracking. And how does Google know what kind of car you have? It knows what kind of car you might have been looking for information on, but that could have been because you were looking to buy one (and decided not to), or because you were helping a friend change the spark plugs. The data is considerably less rich when it's just search data without any ability to track conversions. That said, I didn't actually think about Google Analytics when I originally replied. That is likely to be a source of data that is as good as Amazon's, if not better. Search-derived data on its own is of limited value.
        Retric 17y ago
        It's not about a single piece of information. It takes one login before a new PC's history is linked to every other PC you have used and logged in from. Ok, linking to whichever account you use the most from that PC. In the same way, Searching for an "Acura TSX pricing" in 07 says little. But, if you then search for "07 Acura TSX Owner’s Manual" in 09 you probably bought that car. I don't think Google algorithms are smart enough to say "bugatti veyron videos" relates to a desire for a faster car not the ownership of said car, but who knows. Google has focused on mining data for a long time and are fairly good at it by now. Search over time can say a lot, search for diapers in 00 and “toy’s for 5 year olds”, and you might have a kid born around 00 or are at least interested in buying stuff a child that age. A lot of this is probabilities, thinking there is an 80% chance I have a 07 Acura TSX is a lot better than guessing I probably have a car. AKA showing me advertizing for a low end BMW is probably not a waste relative to the average user.

patio11 17y ago

Amazon knows quite a bit about me: they know I bought a Canon camera in 2000, that I have a bookshelf full of fantasy books, 4 entire seasons of 24, and most everything Joss Whedon has ever made. They can reasonably extrapolate from my book purchases that I'm a trilingual Republican Catholic computer programmer. They know everywhere I've lived for a decade. Google knows a bit about me, too, but pretend they only see one search from this morning: [air fares Nagoya to Okinawa]. If you can tell me why Amazon's decade of data is more valuable than Google's single data point in predicting my purchasing behavior in the near term, you will make a few billion dollars.

Retric 17y ago
Google potentially has every search you have made, every email you sent and received, and every You Tube video you have watched, and every phone call you have made, most sites you have visited, and knows which adds you have already clicked on. Over months to years, heck they know which addresses you have gotten directions to. Finding ways to use that information is hard, but it's a lot wider than what is this search. Amazon might have a lot of information about some of their customers, but Google has an insane amount of information about some of their customers. Which is more useful across the total web is a several billion dollar question. But I don't think Amazon can scale advertising information into that level yet.
- gdp 17y ago
  My search data is likely to be spread around huge numbers of IPs. I'm rarely logged into google. Plus they really have no way of knowing whether I "converted" once I leave the search results. I may open tabs for the top 10 results, but it doesn't mean that I like what I've found, or that I would want to be presented with that kind of information again. My amazon account, on the other hand, has been tied to me for at least 7 years, and likely has every search I've done, every product I've viewed, and everything I did up to and including eventually making a purchase. I've gotta say, based on my own experience as a reasonably typical internet user, Amazon probably have less data on me, but it's bound to be better-quality.
  - Retric 17y ago
    Google uses cookies so the IP issue is meaningless. They also track what advertizing people click on... However, I suspect you and I are not really the target market. I use Amazon and don't use Gmail but a large number of people spend a lot of time online looking at content hosted by Google, or including Google advertisements. PS: Amazon might know which books, and electronics I like, but Google knows which car I have and when I am looking to buy the next one.
    - gdp 17y ago
      By "spread across IPs", I meant "from different physical computers", rather than the sorts of dynamic IP behaviour from a single host that can, as you say, be overcome through the use of cookies for tracking. And how does Google know what kind of car you have? It knows what kind of car you might have been looking for information on, but that could have been because you were looking to buy one (and decided not to), or because you were helping a friend change the spark plugs. The data is considerably less rich when it's just search data without any ability to track conversions. That said, I didn't actually think about Google Analytics when I originally replied. That is likely to be a source of data that is as good as Amazon's, if not better. Search-derived data on its own is of limited value.
      - Retric 17y ago
        It's not about a single piece of information. It takes one login before a new PC's history is linked to every other PC you have used and logged in from. Ok, linking to whichever account you use the most from that PC. In the same way, Searching for an "Acura TSX pricing" in 07 says little. But, if you then search for "07 Acura TSX Owner’s Manual" in 09 you probably bought that car. I don't think Google algorithms are smart enough to say "bugatti veyron videos" relates to a desire for a faster car not the ownership of said car, but who knows. Google has focused on mining data for a long time and are fairly good at it by now. Search over time can say a lot, search for diapers in 00 and “toy’s for 5 year olds”, and you might have a kid born around 00 or are at least interested in buying stuff a child that age. A lot of this is probabilities, thinking there is an 80% chance I have a 07 Acura TSX is a lot better than guessing I probably have a car. AKA showing me advertizing for a low end BMW is probably not a waste relative to the average user.