4 ms·

It's not too late as long as they're still in business. Market share changes happen so rapidly in these industries. You can lose a huge chunk of market share in

by Aqueous 13y ago

It's not too late as long as they're still in business. Market share changes happen so rapidly in these industries. You can lose a huge chunk of market share in two or three years, but you can gain it back just as quickly. For a long time it looked like Apple was going to be dominant in the smartphone market even though Android had already started to show up on handsets. But very very quickly the cell phone industry in its entirety adopted Android - because of its low price and lack of licensing restrictions - and it outgrew the iPhone in terms of market share very rapidly. Same thing could happen with Microsoft. Of course, then there's BlackBerry... I'd be a bit worried if I were Apple. They are still making money hand over fist - and the market is big enough that you can be extremely profitable even if you aren't dominant in market share. But having to compete with one free operating system is hard enough. Now they will have to compete with two. It's like a replay of the OS wars in the 80s and 90s. Things could change quickly.

jaegerpicker 13y ago
Actually if anyone should worry it would be Google. Microsofts play here is very much like Google's, offer a free OS for a variety of phone hardware companies and make money off of the services and app sales. Microsoft can offer a better OS and app store than google but still be on just as many pieces of hardware. Windows 8.1 on a phone is actually a better experience in a lot of ways than Android 4.4 already and it's just going to continue to go that way IMO.
- threeseed 13y ago
  100% spot on. Google is the one people need to be worried about. Should Siri and Cordova get to the point that people stop going to the browser to search then it could severely impact Google's mobile revenues. And what happens if Microsoft doubles down on Bing and convinces Apple to make it the default ? Android may have a large market share but iOS has a disproportionate share of browser usage. Google has a lot of enemies and zero friends. Precarious place to be in.
  - ISL 13y ago
    'Zero friends' is a strong statement, don't you think? IMHO, Google is in its adolescence as a company. Its values of "don't be evil", transparency, etcetera are in the right place. Google has many bright and good-hearted people in its employ, and it's in them that I have the greatest faith. Cloud-hosted services and social networks, Google among them, are only beginning to work out their strengths, weaknesses, and consequences of their actions. But when I see how easily-rooted Android and Chrome OS are, Google's resistance to censorship in some countries, epidemiology outreach and more, I'm reminded that while there is darkness implicit in any company's great store of information, in Google's case there is a capacity and willingness to do good at scale. For that, I remain an optimist.
- spo81rty 13y ago
  I agree. Windows Phone is looking fantastic. I was highly impressed at Cortana and the other changes at Build.

by Aqueous 13y ago

jaegerpicker 13y ago

Actually if anyone should worry it would be Google. Microsofts play here is very much like Google's, offer a free OS for a variety of phone hardware companies and make money off of the services and app sales. Microsoft can offer a better OS and app store than google but still be on just as many pieces of hardware. Windows 8.1 on a phone is actually a better experience in a lot of ways than Android 4.4 already and it's just going to continue to go that way IMO.

threeseed 13y ago
100% spot on. Google is the one people need to be worried about. Should Siri and Cordova get to the point that people stop going to the browser to search then it could severely impact Google's mobile revenues. And what happens if Microsoft doubles down on Bing and convinces Apple to make it the default ? Android may have a large market share but iOS has a disproportionate share of browser usage. Google has a lot of enemies and zero friends. Precarious place to be in.
- ISL 13y ago
  'Zero friends' is a strong statement, don't you think? IMHO, Google is in its adolescence as a company. Its values of "don't be evil", transparency, etcetera are in the right place. Google has many bright and good-hearted people in its employ, and it's in them that I have the greatest faith. Cloud-hosted services and social networks, Google among them, are only beginning to work out their strengths, weaknesses, and consequences of their actions. But when I see how easily-rooted Android and Chrome OS are, Google's resistance to censorship in some countries, epidemiology outreach and more, I'm reminded that while there is darkness implicit in any company's great store of information, in Google's case there is a capacity and willingness to do good at scale. For that, I remain an optimist.
spo81rty 13y ago
I agree. Windows Phone is looking fantastic. I was highly impressed at Cortana and the other changes at Build.