I conjecture that almost all those experts would reply "no" Have you asked even one? Have you asked any experts at all? This is what is so puzzling to me about

I conjecture that almost all those experts would reply "no" Have you asked even one? Have you asked any experts at all? This is what is so puzzling to me about this line of questioning--is the question actually prompted by acquaintance with the subject, or is it of a piece with doubting any other scientific claim? What if the projection is correct, even though you have trouble believing it? I have very little trouble believing the projection, having a mother born in the 1930s who has passed her eighty-first birthday, and having an aunt (her older sister) born in the 1920s who has passed her ninety-fourth birthday. Plenty of people from much earlier birth cohorts are already living into extended old age, so what is so daring about a prediction that anyone who meets established long-term patterns of life expectancy will live into an era with more progress in disease prevention and treatment? (In short, why have you cited no evidence whatever on this point?) (1) the fact that the mortality rates at elderly ages has leveled off for many decades in developing countries and (2) that almost all the increases in life expectancy comes from reducing infant mortality and the spread of infectious diseases. That dual statement suggests you have not looked carefully at the link in my original footnote 4 http://www.nature.com/scientificamerican/journal/v307/n3/box/scientificamerican0912-54_BX1.html http://www.nature.com/scientificamerican/journal/v307/n3/box... (Nature's repost of a chart originally available at the Scientific American website, but a dead link there now), in which it is shown that life expectancy has been increasing steadily at ALL ages, including old ages. You really need to read up more on this, or it's hard for anyone to discuss these issues with you here. You are very careful to speak factually on other issues here on Hacker News, so this is taking me a bit by surprise. Do you know of any experts in this domain at all? Whose writings do you recommend?