Hm, I wouldn't say normal people, but subpopulations of normal people (i.e. not individuals but groups). It's an important distinction in this case. But it de

Hm, I wouldn't say normal people, but subpopulations of normal people (i.e. not individuals but groups). It's an important distinction in this case. But it depends on how CIA analysts' estimates are aggregated if at all. In fact it would be extremely interesting if CIA normally got predictions by averaging multiple analysts' estimates. That would mean normal people with open source intel are beating trained analysts with confidential intel! In that case, we could say normal people beat CIA analysts. But to me this article implies analysts' estimates are not taken as averages. Any CIA analysts here to set the record straight? :)