5 ms·

Could this be simple selectivity? I do not know how CIA selects analysts, but I doubt it is by having large pool of applicants that are evaluated on their predi

Could this be simple selectivity? I do not know how CIA selects analysts, but I doubt it is by having large pool of applicants that are evaluated on their predictions. On the other hand we have group of 30 people, selected for their guessing from amongst 3000 population. When put that way, I would expect 30 people to be consistently better.

akira2501 13y ago
These people are also isolated from the internal agency narrative, I imagine that can help quite a bit.
- negativity 13y ago
  In other words, what if the "taxpayer-funded" forecasts we're permitted to know about are "on the books", so to speak, and so much more is "off the books" and memory-holed beyond even the typical "black magic marker, and white out" form of redacted classification that some times surfaces into the public eye? Truths so brutal, and predictions so harsh that no one dares write them down. But now we enter the information age, and certain realities are essentially undeniable, and can no longer concealed from the civilian panopticons like Google. Sort of like how TV Networks (and even basic cable channels to a degree), with their Standards & Practices departments, waste time sanitizing television destined for the public air waves and radio spectrum, while media on the internet operates with an almost total lack of restraint.
wisty 13y ago
You can find ads online. Basically, get a degree in a related field (international politics, security, languages, demographics, economics, etc), and have decent marks. Apply. Don't tell anyone (until they have briefed you on what you can say). Don't have any skeletons in your closet. It's basically like getting a USAID job, but probably not as competitive (lots of funding = lots of positions, and most people doing these kinds of degrees tend to not be very pro-defence) and with slightly higher security requirements.

akira2501 13y ago

These people are also isolated from the internal agency narrative, I imagine that can help quite a bit.

negativity 13y ago
In other words, what if the "taxpayer-funded" forecasts we're permitted to know about are "on the books", so to speak, and so much more is "off the books" and memory-holed beyond even the typical "black magic marker, and white out" form of redacted classification that some times surfaces into the public eye? Truths so brutal, and predictions so harsh that no one dares write them down. But now we enter the information age, and certain realities are essentially undeniable, and can no longer concealed from the civilian panopticons like Google. Sort of like how TV Networks (and even basic cable channels to a degree), with their Standards & Practices departments, waste time sanitizing television destined for the public air waves and radio spectrum, while media on the internet operates with an almost total lack of restraint.

wisty 13y ago

You can find ads online. Basically, get a degree in a related field (international politics, security, languages, demographics, economics, etc), and have decent marks. Apply. Don't tell anyone (until they have briefed you on what you can say). Don't have any skeletons in your closet. It's basically like getting a USAID job, but probably not as competitive (lots of funding = lots of positions, and most people doing these kinds of degrees tend to not be very pro-defence) and with slightly higher security requirements.