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Doesn't this article seem to contradict itself? It cites superforecasters' amazing ability, then talks about how better forecasting is the result of averaging t
by jmzbond 13y ago
Doesn't this article seem to contradict itself? It cites superforecasters' amazing ability, then talks about how better forecasting is the result of averaging the noise from a crowd of diverse opinions...
- dean 13y agoThat's what jumped out at me as well. First the article extols how the Wisdom of Crowds is smarter than the experts. Then it goes on to say how some of the crowd are superforecasters, (essentially experts), and the rest of the crowd makes no difference. It would be interesting to see how small the group of superforecasters would need to get before their accuracy falls below that of the CIA analysts.
- jmzbond 13y agoGood test!