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John Brunner's book "The Shockwave Rider" (1975), which was heavily inspired by Toffler's "Future Shock", had this concept (called a Delphi pool) as a major and
by syncsynchalt 13y ago
John Brunner's book "The Shockwave Rider" (1975), which was heavily inspired by Toffler's "Future Shock", had this concept (called a Delphi pool) as a major and successful component of the future society.
- gwern 13y agoDelphi pools were invented by RAND, not Brunner, IIRC, have been studied over the years (Armstrong's _Principles of Forecasting_ has some papers on them), and work differently from prediction markets: Delphi pools collect a small number of experts, asks for written analyses and breakdowns and qualitative assessments (not necessarily the precise numerical probabilities of prediction markets), feeds each expert's analysis to the others, asks them for a new analysis incorporating the others, and repeats this for 2 or 3 rounds until a rough consensus has been reached. This is not very similar to prediction markets.