>First, if you want people to get better at making predictions, you need to keep score of how accurate their predictions turn out to be, so they have concrete f

>First, if you want people to get better at making predictions, you need to keep score of how accurate their predictions turn out to be, so they have concrete feedback. >But also, if you take a large crowd of different people with access to different information and pool their predictions, you will be in much better shape than if you rely on a single very smart person, or even a small group of very smart people." Both points are clearly true. But it's obvious that the CIA, and probably anything political, has problems "keeping score," not getting more voices.