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There are multiple experimental groups in the project, which use different methods. One of the methods is a prediction market, where you can buy or sell shares
by nbouscal 13y ago
There are multiple experimental groups in the project, which use different methods. One of the methods is a prediction market, where you can buy or sell shares of any given outcome, with the market price being the group estimate of the probability. For example, if the group thinks something will happen with 35% probability, you can buy shares for $35 (fake money). When the questions are eventually resolved, correct shares are valued at $100, and incorrect shares are valued at $0.
- tedsanders 13y agoThere were multiple experiment groups at the beginning, but I'm not sure if any are left besides Good Judgment. DAGGRE, the prediction market group, is out. Edit: Oops, I misunderstood. Apparently Good Judgment also has a prediction market group inside of it. Thanks nbouscal.
- deleted 13y ago[deleted]
- deleted 13y ago[deleted]