4 ms·
Agreed. How do we know that the top 1% predictors are there through skill rather than luck? Knowing more about the questions, numbers etc would help us to come
by joosters 13y ago
Agreed. How do we know that the top 1% predictors are there through skill rather than luck? Knowing more about the questions, numbers etc would help us to come to a good idea about how many people should make these predictions by chance alone, and so on.
- chiph 13y agoOr, she could be a "Teela Brown" -- someone who is naturally (or unnaturally...) lucky. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Teela_Brown http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Teela_Brown
- Noelkd 13y agoI don't see why this is being down voted as someone who has read the Ringworld novels I couldn't help but think of Teela Brown and her luck.
- anigbrowl 13y agoBecause chiph is offering a fictional explanation for a real world phenomenon. There have been lots of scientific studies involving randomness in fields as diverse as economics, game theory, gambling behavior, and parapsychology; if 'luckiness' was a measurable characteristic of people then you'd expect it to reliably show up in such contexts. Invoking it as an explanation where a simpler alternative exists (the idea that some people are more skilled at analyzing current affairs) is illogical.
- malka 13y agoI cant downvote, but i expected the link to point to someone real, not a fictional character.
- chiph 13y agoOk, here you go. http://www.cnn.com/2014/04/01/us/powerball-lottery-winner/index.html?iref=allsearch http://www.cnn.com/2014/04/01/us/powerball-lottery-winner/in...
- malka 13y agoAnd on the opposite side of the spectrum : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roy_Sullivan http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roy_Sullivan