4 ms·
It's totally unclear what they are actually doing. Are they averaging everyone's answer (wisdom of the crowd)? Are they looking back at who got lucky and decla
by Robin_Message 13y ago
It's totally unclear what they are actually doing.
Are they averaging everyone's answer (wisdom of the crowd)? Are they looking back at who got lucky and declaring them "super forecasters" (and then seeing large regressions to the mean)? Did they have separate periods of testing to try and control for this? Did they have a control group of similar size just flipping coins?
The way this is written it sounds like someone used a Gladwell book as their entire science education.
- nbouscal 13y agoThere are multiple experimental groups in the project, which use different methods. One of the methods is a prediction market, where you can buy or sell shares of any given outcome, with the market price being the group estimate of the probability. For example, if the group thinks something will happen with 35% probability, you can buy shares for $35 (fake money). When the questions are eventually resolved, correct shares are valued at $100, and incorrect shares are valued at $0.
- tedsanders 13y agoThere were multiple experiment groups at the beginning, but I'm not sure if any are left besides Good Judgment. DAGGRE, the prediction market group, is out. Edit: Oops, I misunderstood. Apparently Good Judgment also has a prediction market group inside of it. Thanks nbouscal.
- deleted 13y ago[deleted]
- deleted 13y ago[deleted]