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Why Predictify, a faux prediction market site, failed
- joshu 17y agoYeah. I don't think prediction markets work without money (well, scarcity...)
- gwern 17y agoThere are prediction markets that work fine with play money; the Hollywood one is famously effective and one of the oldest, last I heard.
- mhil 17y agoHollywood Stock Exchange is extremely effective with play money but that is because the people playing on the site are all part of the same industry and there are actual ego issues and incentives to make it to the top of the leaderboard.
- gwern 17y agoSure; the article covers exactly this - you can get by without money incentives if you have good social incentives. Predictify lacked the latter and the former, and the top comment seemed to forget this important conditional.
- deleted 17y ago[deleted]
- gtzi 17y agoAs the co-founder of http://askmarkets.com http://askmarkets.com let me add that Predictify seemed to have huge operational costs, and the business model of running public play-money markets, with no specific focus remains to be proven sustainable. Moreover, it was more of a game and less than a market (prediction or not). So far, only real money public markets (Betfair, Intrade) and marketplace-as-a-service providers (Newsfutures, Inkling, Consensus Point) are performing well enough, to my limited knowledge.
- tptacek 17y agoHow are other markets solving the market maker problem?