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I personally believe that Karpeles committed fraud and stole users' money, but I believe that category of risk was absolutely known and correctly priced into th

I personally believe that Karpeles committed fraud and stole users' money, but I believe that category of risk was absolutely known and correctly priced into the instrument. What do you folks think? EDIT: A rational response is a much more satisfying outcome for you, if you can pull it off, rather than mere downvoting to attempt to force your hopes for reality onto the world.. yes, you do achieve a minor victory, a move forward against the hurt, downvoted opponent.. but not truly closer to victory, secure in a rational interpretation of events.

TDL 13y ago
I'm inclined to believe that it was incompetence & overconfidence that lead to the collapse. I suppose we will have a better understanding of what happened in the months to come.
- gargarplex 13y ago
  Hanlon's razor, or "Any sufficiently advanced incompetence is indistinguishable from malice". http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon's_razor http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon's_razor
  - TDL 13y ago
    Incompetence can be criminal. I was speaking towards intent. It's doubtful there was intent to defraud. This doesn't mean that those involved shouldn't suffer the consequences of their actions. *Minor edit
nknighthb 13y ago
That would seem to mean either something went horribly and abruptly wrong with his scheme, or he forgot "and run". Which one are you postulating, and why?
- gargarplex 13y ago
  I am postulating that he looks guilty here. http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2014/03/27/business/dbpix-bitcoin-mt-gox2/dbpix-bitcoin-mt-gox2-tmagArticle.jpg http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2014/03/27/business/dbpi... And I can't tell you why. Maybe I'm projecting. But it's my gut intuition. Though is this not a category of thought that should be discerned via "fast thinking"? Are there any studies that compare test subjects' judgments of guilt, based on defendant photographs, to jury verdicts?
  - nknighthb 13y ago
    Never serve on a jury.
    - gargarplex 13y ago
      Haha, oh man. Do you think the judge would let me cite this thread as evidence for why I should be excused? Also: you have a cognitive error, bud. I was a victim in this case; I would not be eligible for the jury. Fundamental attribution error http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fundamental_attribution_error http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fundamental_attribution_error
      - nknighthb 13y ago
        Any jury, anywhere, for any case. People who think they can infer guilt from an utterly neutral facial expression captured in a still image are not fit to participate in any system of justice.
        gargarplex 13y ago
        OK, that comment was mean. Are you aware of that? edit: hahahaha, all right, whatever. he still looks guilty to me. sorry if he's innocent. regardless, there is definitely a sentiment, and i voiced it. i don't regret contributing. maybe my tone or something could have been improved? i'm not sure, because i don't disagree with my actions.
- Crito 13y ago
  With carefully staged incompetence, you can commit fail-safe theft (where if you are discovered, you can claim it was all an accident/a product of your incompetence/a misunderstanding). I've covered one way that this can work here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7302672 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7302672 If I were going to even attempt a theft as large as this (if in fact it was an attempted theft), I would make the scheme being fail-safe the highest priority. The scheme being fail-safe should be a higher priority than even the scheme working.
yen223 13y ago
Someone stole the money, but it's probably not Karpeles who did it.
- gargarplex 13y ago
  Yakuza?
  - saalweachter 13y ago
    It doesn't have to be anything sexy. I've been at some places with pretty horrific internal security. It's easy to imagine that someone was trusted who shouldn't have been, and had access to nearly everything, including "cold" wallets. Heck, if they were working remotely they might not have even needed to "run".
    - yen223 13y ago
      Exactly. The reason I don't think it was Karpeles who did it is that his name is all over the place. He has (had?) a lot to lose if he decided to do something as brash as this.
ubernostrum 13y ago
Companies not involved with BitCoin lose large amounts of money and/or customer payment details (which is the same as losing their customers' money, in a sense) all the time, for reasons having nothing to do with malice on the part of the companies. Why do you hold BitCoin-based companies to be different?

TDL 13y ago

I'm inclined to believe that it was incompetence & overconfidence that lead to the collapse. I suppose we will have a better understanding of what happened in the months to come.

gargarplex 13y ago
Hanlon's razor, or "Any sufficiently advanced incompetence is indistinguishable from malice". http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon's_razor http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon's_razor
- TDL 13y ago
  Incompetence can be criminal. I was speaking towards intent. It's doubtful there was intent to defraud. This doesn't mean that those involved shouldn't suffer the consequences of their actions. *Minor edit

nknighthb 13y ago

That would seem to mean either something went horribly and abruptly wrong with his scheme, or he forgot "and run". Which one are you postulating, and why?

gargarplex 13y ago
I am postulating that he looks guilty here. http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2014/03/27/business/dbpix-bitcoin-mt-gox2/dbpix-bitcoin-mt-gox2-tmagArticle.jpg http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2014/03/27/business/dbpi... And I can't tell you why. Maybe I'm projecting. But it's my gut intuition. Though is this not a category of thought that should be discerned via "fast thinking"? Are there any studies that compare test subjects' judgments of guilt, based on defendant photographs, to jury verdicts?
- nknighthb 13y ago
  Never serve on a jury.
  - gargarplex 13y ago
    Haha, oh man. Do you think the judge would let me cite this thread as evidence for why I should be excused? Also: you have a cognitive error, bud. I was a victim in this case; I would not be eligible for the jury. Fundamental attribution error http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fundamental_attribution_error http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fundamental_attribution_error
    - nknighthb 13y ago
      Any jury, anywhere, for any case. People who think they can infer guilt from an utterly neutral facial expression captured in a still image are not fit to participate in any system of justice.
      - gargarplex 13y ago
        OK, that comment was mean. Are you aware of that? edit: hahahaha, all right, whatever. he still looks guilty to me. sorry if he's innocent. regardless, there is definitely a sentiment, and i voiced it. i don't regret contributing. maybe my tone or something could have been improved? i'm not sure, because i don't disagree with my actions.
Crito 13y ago
With carefully staged incompetence, you can commit fail-safe theft (where if you are discovered, you can claim it was all an accident/a product of your incompetence/a misunderstanding). I've covered one way that this can work here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7302672 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7302672 If I were going to even attempt a theft as large as this (if in fact it was an attempted theft), I would make the scheme being fail-safe the highest priority. The scheme being fail-safe should be a higher priority than even the scheme working.

yen223 13y ago

Someone stole the money, but it's probably not Karpeles who did it.

gargarplex 13y ago
Yakuza?
- saalweachter 13y ago
  It doesn't have to be anything sexy. I've been at some places with pretty horrific internal security. It's easy to imagine that someone was trusted who shouldn't have been, and had access to nearly everything, including "cold" wallets. Heck, if they were working remotely they might not have even needed to "run".
  - yen223 13y ago
    Exactly. The reason I don't think it was Karpeles who did it is that his name is all over the place. He has (had?) a lot to lose if he decided to do something as brash as this.

ubernostrum 13y ago

Companies not involved with BitCoin lose large amounts of money and/or customer payment details (which is the same as losing their customers' money, in a sense) all the time, for reasons having nothing to do with malice on the part of the companies. Why do you hold BitCoin-based companies to be different?