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> It learns increasingly high level features and representations of the input. In the words of Darth Vader, impressive. In my words, astounding. Perhaps beyo
by graycat 13y ago
> It learns increasingly high level features and representations of the input.
In the words of Darth Vader, impressive. In
my words, astounding. Perhaps beyond belief.
I'm thrilled if what you say is true, but I'm
tempted to offer you a great, once in a life time
deal on a bridge over the East River.
> The future looks bright.
From 'The Music Man', "I'm reticent. Yes, I'm
reticent." Might want to make sure
no one added some funny stuff to the Kool Aid!
On AI, my 'deep learning' had a good 'training
set', the world of 'expert systems'. My first
cut view was that it was 99 44/100% hype and
half of the rest polluted water. What was left
was some somewhat clever software, say, the Forgy
RETE algorithm. My views
after my first cut view was that my first
cut view was quite generous, that expert systems
filled a much need gap in the literature and would
be illuminating if ignited.
So, from
my 'training set' my Bayesian 'prior probability'
is that nearly anything about AI is at least
99 44/100% hype.
That a bunch of neural network nodes can somehow
in effect develop internally just via adjustments
in the 'weights' or whatever 'parameters' it has
just from analysis of a 'training set' images of
a Russian tank (no doubt complete with
skill at 'spacial relations' where it is claimed
that boys are better than girls) instead of somehow
just 'storing' the data on the tank separately
looks like rewiring the Intel processor
when download a new PDF file instead of just
putting the PDF file in storage. But, maybe
putting the 'recognition means' somehow
'with' the storage means is how it is actually done.
The old Darwinian guess I made was that
early on it was darned important to understand
three dimensions and paths through three dimensions.
So, going after a little animal, and it goes behind
a rock. So, there's a lot of advantage to
understanding the rock as a concept and that
can go the other way around the rock and get
the animal. But it seems that the concept of
a rock stays even outside the context of
chasing prey. So, somehow intelligence
works with concepts such a rocks and also
uses that concept for chasing prey,
turning the rock over and looking under it,
knowing that a rock is hard and dense,
etc.
Net, my view is that AI is darned hard,
so hard that MLE, neural nets, decision
theory, etc. are hardly up to the level
of even baby talk. Just my not very well
informed, intuitive, largely out of date
opinion. But, I have a good track record:
I was correct early on that expert systems are
a junk approach to AI.
> The future looks bright.
Yes, eventually.
- Houshalter 13y agoThere is a degree of hype. They are really good at pattern recognition, maybe even superhuman on some problems and with enough training and data. But certainly they can't "think" in a normal sense or are a magical solution to the AI problem. And like everything in AI, once you understand how it actually works, it may not seem as impressive as it did at first. >instead of somehow just 'storing' the data on the tank separately looks like rewiring the Intel processor when download a new PDF file instead of just putting the PDF file in storage. Good analogy, but how would you even do that? One picture of a tank isn't enough to generalize. Is a tank any image colored green? Is it any object painted camouflage? Is it any vehicle that has a tube protruding from it? In order to learn, you need a lot of examples, and you need to test a lot of different hypotheses about what a tank is. That's a really difficult problem.
- graycat 13y ago> That's a really difficult problem. Yup.