6 ms·

Occam's razor. "Among competing hypotheses, the one with the fewest assumptions should be selected" No signals = Mid-air explosion. Hijacking, abduction, ber

• aidos 13y ago
  Except that's not what the evidence suggests...so Occam's Razor doesn't apply in this instance.
  • hyperbovine 13y ago
    Occam's Razor always applies... but the simplest possible explanation needs to account for why the thing would fly seven hours off course for the purpose of blowing up over the Indian Ocean.
    • corresation 13y ago
      I don't think anyone thinks the plane blew up. At some point it likely just ran out of fuel and crashed into the ocean. The simplest possible solution with the facts that we have now is that one of the pilots (one of the pilots wife and children moved out of the family home the day before liftoff) wanted to commit suicide (taking many victims with him), but for some reason wanted to leave a mystery. Perhaps relating to insurance in some way -- hoping the black box would never be found that revealed any of the actions. Their tactic might have been to continue flying into no-return range in such a way that they didn't have to fully admit to what they were doing until it was too late. It is terribly crass to make someone a villain when they might have been simply a victim, but of all the possible explanations that is all that seems to fit right now. That someone wanted to leave a mystery, and intentionally crashed in a place and way where it was incredibly unlikely that they would ever be found, and it turns out that only a communications handshake and some technical excellence led to it possibly being found.
      • janineyoong 13y ago
        It is terribly crass, especially when rumor and conjecture about the pilot's personal life (no newspaper of any repute has verified this) is used as a basis for these remarks. This particular rumor is less vicious that the ones about him being a political fanatic, or a Muslim extremist, but no less sad a reflection of how far the press has fallen.
        • corresation 13y ago
          Given the facts of this case thus far, you might be overdoing it with the outrage. Of course details of the lives of the pilots are being poured over given that every indication includes one of their involvement.
          • deleted 13y ago
            [deleted]
          • janineyoong 13y ago
            Not outraged, just disappointed with the state of reporting. While I might not agree with your theory, I don't disagree with the need to pore over the crewmembers' backgrounds, or the plausibility of your overall point. What bugs me is just one point that is not fact. Would you consider reading this: - an NYT story on the pilot's background and how it got twisted out of shape by tabloids (http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/03/19/pilot-of-missing-jet-expressed-interest-in-democracy-and-atheism-on-social-networks/ http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/03/19/pilot-of-missing...), and - a WaPo story with a named source who clarifies that his wife "moving out" was her normal practice of staying with their grown children whenever he flew (http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/agony-mounts-for-families-of-malaysia-airlines-pilots/2014/03/19/ec127928-af75-11e3-9627-c65021d6d572_story.html http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/agony-mounts-for-familie...) - and see if it changes your point of view? or at least, how you might describe the pilot's state of mind the next time you share your thoughts?
• twoodfin 13y ago
  Huh? There were signals: That's how we know the plane took an extremely unexpected course and flew essentially until its fuel was exhausted. How does that imply a mid-air explosion?
• dingaling 13y ago
  Mid-air explosions actually have a very significant radar signature, called 'bloom', as the debris field expands. If your theory is that the aircraft exploded somewhere between Malaysia and Vietnam then it would have appeared as a rapidly-increasing radar return even on civilian radars. Source: personal anecdote from ex-mil radar operator, who also noted that it was possible to track the larger pieces of debris from the target drones and direct the following-up missiles towards them
  • InclinedPlane 13y ago
    Mid-air aircraft explosions also have a very significant IR signature, which will show up on missile warning satellite observations. TWA-800 did, for example.